Sport Picks

Latvia

Nakotnes liga 2025

JFK Ventspils

1 - 0

Marupe

Our Tip

Match Events

25'

Speks R.

34'

Dembele M.

46'

Sub

Komorovskis K. In: Garais P.

Out: Komorovskis K.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

JFK Ventspils in this Nakotnes liga 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored JFK Ventspils.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

JFK Ventspils

39%

Draws

31%

Marupe

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

JFK Ventspils haven't matched Marupe's recent run of results.
39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 94%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%

JFK Ventspils Clean Sheet 14%

Marupe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	JFK Ventspils	Marupe
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	7	11
Draws	9	2
Losses	13	16
Goals Scored	1.38	2
Goals Conceded	1.25	1.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 14, 2026 Nakotnes liga

Marupe vs JFK Ventspils

Possession: 51% - 44% Cards: 3 - 3

1:2

Nov 1, 2025 Nakotnes liga

JFK Ventspils vs Marupe

Possession: 57% - 41% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

Jul 5, 2025 Nakotnes liga

Marupe vs JFK Ventspils

Possession: 53% - 56% Cards: 1 - 2

1:2

Sep 15, 2024 Nakotnes liga

JFK Ventspils vs Marupe

Possession: 47% - 48% Cards: 2 - 3

2:3

May 11, 2024 Nakotnes liga

Marupe vs JFK Ventspils

Possession: 46% - 50% Cards: 1 - 3

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

JFK Ventspils Compare

Top Goalscorer Dembele M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Marupe Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

JFK Ventspils 30 / 100

Marupe 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

JFK Ventspils Marupe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick JFK Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

JFK Ventspils scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Marupe conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Marupe has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

JFK Ventspils VS Marupe

1.38 Goals Scored 2

1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63

88% Over 1.5 100%

63% Over 2.5 88%

13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ogre United	26	18	4	4	66:20	58
2	Alberts JDFS	26	17	7	2	60:24	58
3	Riga Mariners	26	18	4	4	74:34	58
4	JFK Ventspils	26	11	10	5	40:29	43
5	RFS 2	26	11	8	7	46:31	41
6	Skanste	26	11	7	8	36:39	40
7	Leevon PPK	26	10	6	10	40:40	36
8	Marupe	26	10	2	14	30:33	32
9	Rezekne	26	8	7	11	36:57	31
10	FK Smiltene	26	8	4	14	46:48	28
11	Riga FC 2	26	6	6	14	35:43	24
12	Tukums 2000 2	26	7	2	17	37:60	23
13	AFA Olaine	26	6	4	16	39:88	22
14	Augsdaugavas	26	3	5	18	19:58	14