Sport Picks
Kairat Almaty vs Atyrau
Kazakhstan
Premier League Almaty Central Stadium, Almaty 
Match Events
13'
13'
Oksanen J.
Assist: Jorginho G.
27'
27'
Noyok O.
61'
61'
Sub
Glazer D. In: Kasabulat D.
Out: Glazer D.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League game between Kairat Almaty and Atyrau finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Kairat Almaty
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Kairat Almaty carry the better recent record into this one.
- 90% — that's where the model lands on Kairat Almaty taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Kairat Almaty here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Kairat Almaty Clean Sheet 68%
Atyrau Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Kairat Almaty | Atyrau |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 26 |
| Wins | 17 | 6 |
| Draws | 6 | 10 |
| Losses | 5 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 2.38 | 0.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.38 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.88 | 1.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 18, 2026 Premier League
Atyrau vs Kairat Almaty
1:3
Jun 13, 2026 Premier League
Kairat Almaty vs Atyrau
1:1
Apr 16, 2025 Premier League
Kairat Almaty vs Atyrau
4:0
Apr 6, 2025 Premier League
Atyrau vs Kairat Almaty
1:4
Nov 10, 2024 Premier League
Atyrau vs Kairat Almaty
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Kairat Almaty Compare
Top Goalscorer Oksanen J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19
Atyrau Compare
Top Goalscorer Abdulla A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Kairat Almaty 95 / 100
Atyrau 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Kairat Almaty Atyrau
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick KAI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 2:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Kairat Almaty scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.
Games between these two average 3.20 goals.
Atyrau has conceded goals in 69% of their last 26 outings.
Kairat Almaty has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Kairat Almaty VS Atyrau
2.38 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Kairat Almaty
(Home) 22 Jul
Omonia
1 : 0 Kairat Almaty
18 Jul
Atyrau
1 : 3 Kairat Almaty
15 Jul
Sutjeska
0 : 2 Kairat Almaty
08 Jul
Kairat Almaty
2 : 1 Sutjeska
02 Jul
Kairat Almaty
5 : 0 Okzhetpes
Page 1 of 6
08 Jul
Kairat Almaty
2 : 1 Sutjeska
02 Jul
Kairat Almaty
5 : 0 Okzhetpes
17 Jun
Kairat Almaty
3 : 0 Kyzylzhar
13 Jun
Kairat Almaty
1 : 1 Atyrau
23 May
Kairat Almaty
0 : 0 Kaisar Kyzylorda
Page 1 of 2
Atyrau
(Away) 18 Jul
Atyrau
1 : 3 Kairat Almaty
05 Jul
Atyrau
1 : 2 Kaspij Aktau
27 Jun
Kaspij Aktau
2 : 0 Atyrau
21 Jun
Yelimay Semey
1 : 2 Atyrau
13 Jun
Kairat Almaty
1 : 1 Atyrau
Page 1 of 6
27 Jun
Kaspij Aktau
2 : 0 Atyrau
21 Jun
Yelimay Semey
1 : 2 Atyrau
13 Jun
Kairat Almaty
1 : 1 Atyrau
23 May
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
0 : 0 Atyrau
17 May
Aktobe
1 : 1 Atyrau
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 33:13 | 43 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 19 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 37:13 | 42 |
| 3 | Okzhetpes | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 24:24 | 30 |
| 4 | FC Astana | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 26:20 | 28 |
| 6 | Ulytau | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 15:16 | 27 |
| 7 | Yelimay Semey | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25:22 | 26 |
| 8 | Zhenis | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 15:20 | 22 |
| 9 | Tobol | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 20:26 | 19 |
| 10 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 19 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 14:21 | 19 |
| 11 | Atyrau | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 13:16 | 18 |
| 12 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21:27 | 18 |
| 13 | Kaspij Aktau | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 16:23 | 18 |
| 14 | Kyzylzhar | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 18:26 | 16 |
| 15 | Altai | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 14:22 | 16 |
| 16 | Ertis Pavlodar | 17 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 14:22 | 11 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)