Sport Picks
Kariobangi Sharks vs Mara Sugar Prediction & H2H Stats
Kenya
Premier League 
Match Events
22'
22'
Ndayala T.
AI Match Summary
Mara Sugar in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mara Sugar.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Kariobangi Sharks
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Kariobangi Sharks haven't matched Mara Sugar's recent run of results.
- Model gives Kariobangi Sharks a 47% chance of winning this.
- Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Mara Sugar here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Kariobangi Sharks Clean Sheet 68%
Mara Sugar Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Kariobangi Sharks | Mara Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 24 |
| Wins | 7 | 8 |
| Draws | 11 | 9 |
| Losses | 11 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 0.93 | 0.96 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.03 | 0.96 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 0.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 18, 2026 Premier League
Kariobangi Sharks vs Mara Sugar
0:1
Dec 13, 2025 Premier League
Mara Sugar vs Kariobangi Sharks
2:0
Jun 22, 2025 Premier League
Kariobangi Sharks vs Mara Sugar
4:1
Dec 14, 2024 Premier League
Mara Sugar vs Kariobangi Sharks
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Kariobangi Sharks Compare
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Mara Sugar Compare
Top Goalscorer Ndayala T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Kariobangi Sharks 95 / 100
Mara Sugar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Kariobangi Sharks Mara Sugar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Kariobangi Sharks Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Kariobangi Sharks scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 2.25 goals.
Solid form: Kariobangi Sharks remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Mara Sugar's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
Scoring Trends
Kariobangi Sharks VS Mara Sugar
1.63 Goals Scored 0.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 25%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Kariobangi Sharks
(Home) 01 Oct
Mombasa United
2 : 1 Kariobangi Sharks
31 May
Kariobangi Sharks
6 : 0 Sofapaka
27 May
Police FC
1 : 1 Kariobangi Sharks
23 May
Kariobangi Sharks
2 : 2 Kakamega Homeboyz
10 May
Kariobangi Sharks
2 : 0 Nairobi United
Page 1 of 6
31 May
Kariobangi Sharks
6 : 0 Sofapaka
23 May
Kariobangi Sharks
2 : 2 Kakamega Homeboyz
10 May
Kariobangi Sharks
2 : 0 Nairobi United
25 Apr
Kariobangi Sharks
1 : 0 Muranga
18 Apr
Kariobangi Sharks
0 : 1 Mara Sugar
Page 1 of 3
Mara Sugar
(Away) 31 May
Muranga
2 : 1 Mara Sugar
27 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 0 Mahia
16 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 1 Mathare United
13 May
Mara Sugar
1 : 0 Shabana
09 May
Leopards
2 : 1 Mara Sugar
Page 1 of 5
31 May
Muranga
2 : 1 Mara Sugar
09 May
Leopards
2 : 1 Mara Sugar
24 Apr
Tusker
0 : 1 Mara Sugar
18 Apr
Kariobangi Sharks
0 : 1 Mara Sugar
01 Apr
Nairobi United
1 : 1 Mara Sugar
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mahia | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 50:22 | 69 |
| 2 | Leopards | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 44:28 | 64 |
| 3 | Police FC | 34 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 31:21 | 55 |
| 4 | Nairobi United | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 44:34 | 53 |
| 5 | Shabana | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 35:34 | 52 |
| 6 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 47:37 | 49 |
| 7 | KCB | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 36:37 | 48 |
| 8 | Muranga | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 42:41 | 47 |
| 9 | Tusker | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 27:32 | 45 |
| 10 | APS Bomet | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 37:35 | 44 |
| 11 | Mara Sugar | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 30:30 | 44 |
| 12 | Bandari | 34 | 9 | 17 | 8 | 26:26 | 44 |
| 13 | Ulinzi Stars | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 34:37 | 41 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31:35 | 41 |
| 15 | Posta Rangers | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 31:40 | 40 |
| 16 | Kariobangi Sharks | 34 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 30:33 | 38 |
| 17 | Bidco United | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 19:40 | 27 |
| 18 | Sofapaka | 34 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 19:51 | 19 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)
