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Stadium Background

Kashiwa Reysol vs FC Tokyo

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa
Kashiwa Reysol Logo

Kashiwa Reysol

1 - 3
FT
FC Tokyo Logo

FC Tokyo

Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Sugioka D.
43' Event
Endo K.
Assist: Ryan Marcelo
46'
Sub
Konishi Y. In: Harakawa R.
Out: Konishi Y.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

FC Tokyo in this J1 League 2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored FC Tokyo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Kashiwa Reysol
6%
Draws
4%
FC Tokyo
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Kashiwa Reysol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to FC Tokyo lately — more wins on the board than Kashiwa Reysol.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Kashiwa Reysol taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Kashiwa Reysol Clean Sheet 68%
FC Tokyo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kashiwa Reysol FC Tokyo
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 16 17
Draws 0 4
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1.63 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2026 J1 League
Kashiwa Reysol vs FC Tokyo
1:3
Feb 28, 2026 J1 League
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol
0:2
Jul 5, 2025 J1 League
Kashiwa Reysol vs FC Tokyo
1:0
Apr 11, 2025 J1 League
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol
1:1
Jul 6, 2024 J1 League
Kashiwa Reysol vs FC Tokyo
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kashiwa Reysol Compare

Top Goalscorer Nakagawa N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

FC Tokyo Compare

Top Goalscorer Endo K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sato R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kashiwa Reysol 95 / 100
FC Tokyo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kashiwa Reysol FC Tokyo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KAS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kashiwa Reysol's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

FC Tokyo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Kashiwa Reysol has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Kashiwa Reysol VS FC Tokyo
1.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Kashiwa Reysol

(Home)
06 Jun
Kashiwa Reysol
0 : 1
Kyoto
30 May
Kyoto
2 : 6
Kashiwa Reysol
23 May
Kashiwa Reysol
4 : 2
Chiba
16 May
Yokohama F. Marinos
0 : 1
Kashiwa Reysol
10 May
Kashiwa Reysol
1 : 0
Kawasaki Frontale
Page 1 of 6

FC Tokyo

(Away)
21 Jul
FC Tokyo
2 : 1
Nagoya Grampus
06 Jun
FC Tokyo
1 : 3
Cerezo Osaka
30 May
Cerezo Osaka
2 : 2
FC Tokyo
23 May
Kashima Antlers
1 : 0
FC Tokyo
16 May
Urawa Reds
0 : 1
FC Tokyo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Kashima Antlers18150331:1145
2FC Tokyo18130532:1837
3Machida Zelvia18130528:2237
4Kawasaki Frontale18100826:2828
5Verdy18100822:2628
6Urawa Reds18701125:2225
7Yokohama F. Marinos18601228:3120
8Kashiwa Reysol18701122:2420
9Mito18601223:3918
10Chiba18301518:3412
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
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Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vissel Kobe18110729:2535
2Cerezo Osaka18110730:2131
3Nagoya Grampus18100833:3131
4Sanfrecce Hiroshima18100831:2330
5Gamba Osaka18100831:2528
6Okayama18801026:2926
7Shimizu S-Pulse18801023:2524
8Kyoto18801022:2823
9V-Varen Nagasaki18701121:2921
10Avispa Fukuoka18701121:3121
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Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
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Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)