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Kaunas United vs Kiemas Vilnius

Lithuania Lithuania

Lithuanian Cup 2010/2011
Thu, Jun 10, 2010
1 - 0
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kaunas United play Kiemas Vilnius in the Lithuanian Cup 2010/2011. Kaunas United are favorites here. Recently, Kaunas United averaged 1.73 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. Kiemas Vilnius averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. In past meetings, Kaunas United won 2, Kiemas Vilnius won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 27, 2011 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.84 for Kaunas United and 1.02 for Kiemas Vilnius. This points to a Kaunas United double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Kaunas United
15%
Draws
15%
Kiemas Vilnius
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kaunas United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Kaunas United picked up more points recently compared to Kiemas Vilnius.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.84 vs 1.02 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%
Kaunas United Clean Sheet 23%
Kiemas Vilnius Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 60%
Second Half Goal 64%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kaunas United Kiemas Vilnius
Matches Played 11 5
Wins 7 1
Draws 0 0
Losses 4 4
Goals Scored 1.73 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.80
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.80

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 27, 2011 Lithuanian Cup
Kaunas United vs Kiemas Vilnius
3:2
Jun 10, 2010 Lithuanian Cup
Kaunas United vs Kiemas Vilnius
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kaunas United 68 / 100
Kiemas Vilnius 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kaunas United Kiemas Vilnius

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kaunas United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Kaunas United & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +12.7%
1.61
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Kaunas United attacking → ← attacking Kiemas Vilnius

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kaunas United scored in 82% of their last 11 games.

Kiemas Vilnius let in goals in 80% of their last 5 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Kaunas United went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Kiemas Vilnius lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 3
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.80
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.80