Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kerry vs Finn Harps

Ireland Ireland

Division 1 Mounthawk Park, Tralee
Kerry Logo

Kerry

2 - 1
FT
Finn Harps Logo

Finn Harps

Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
McGrath S.
20'
Benny
30' Event
Bargary C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Kerry in this Division 1 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kerry.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Kerry
15%
Draws
26%
Finn Harps
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kerry

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Kerry have won more games recently than Finn Harps.
  • Kerry are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Kerry Clean Sheet 20%
Finn Harps Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kerry Finn Harps
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 5
Draws 6 5
Losses 11 19
Goals Scored 1.28 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.31 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 24, 2026 Division 1
Kerry vs Finn Harps
2:1
May 8, 2026 Division 1
Finn Harps vs Kerry
1:0
Mar 20, 2026 Division 1
Kerry vs Finn Harps
1:0
Oct 13, 2025 Division 1
Finn Harps vs Kerry
1:1
Aug 8, 2025 Division 1
Kerry vs Finn Harps
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kerry Compare

Top Goalscorer McGrath S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bargary C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Finn Harps Compare

Top Goalscorer Priosti G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kerry 40 / 100
Finn Harps 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kerry Finn Harps

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kerry Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Finn Harps let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Kerry scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Kerry stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kerry VS Finn Harps
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 3.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Kerry

(Home)
18 Sept
Athlone
3 : 0
Kerry
11 Sept
Kerry
0 : 1
Bray
05 Sept
Longford
0 : 1
Kerry
28 Aug
Kerry
3 : 1
Treaty United
21 Aug
Kerry
1 : 1
UC Dublin
Page 1 of 6

Finn Harps

(Away)
18 Sept
Finn Harps
0 : 1
Longford
11 Sept
Wexford
1 : 3
Finn Harps
04 Sept
Finn Harps
0 : 1
Athlone
28 Aug
UC Dublin
5 : 4
Finn Harps
21 Aug
Finn Harps
1 : 3
Cobh Ramblers
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cork City 32 22 5 5 69:30 71
2 Bray 32 14 8 10 61:44 50
3 UC Dublin 32 14 7 11 56:45 49
4 Cobh Ramblers 32 13 6 13 39:46 45
5 Longford 32 12 8 12 42:41 44
6 Athlone 32 12 8 12 36:36 44
7 Kerry 32 11 9 12 39:39 42
8 Wexford 32 11 7 14 37:47 40
9 Treaty United 32 8 9 15 31:47 33
10 Finn Harps 32 6 7 19 29:64 25
Promotion - Premier Division 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 (Play Offs)