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Keski-Uusimaa vs SalPa

Finland Finland

Ykkonen Kalevan Urheilupuisto
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Keski-Uusimaa play SalPa in the Ykkonen. Keski-Uusimaa are favorites here. Recently, Keski-Uusimaa averaged 1.62 goals scored and 1.69 conceded. SalPa averaged 1.59 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. In past meetings, Keski-Uusimaa won 1, SalPa won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 2, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Keski-Uusimaa and 1.00 for SalPa. This points to a Keski-Uusimaa double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Keski-Uusimaa
25%
Draws
15%
SalPa
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Keski-Uusimaa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Keski-Uusimaa picked up more points recently compared to SalPa.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 68%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 85%
Over 2.5 Goals 68%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Keski-Uusimaa Clean Sheet 23%
SalPa Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Keski-Uusimaa SalPa
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 10
Draws 8 5
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.62 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.69 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Ykkonen
Keski-Uusimaa vs SalPa
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Keski-Uusimaa Compare

Top Goalscorer Toivonen H.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

SalPa Compare

Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Keski-Uusimaa 59 / 100
SalPa 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Keski-Uusimaa SalPa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Keski-Uusimaa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Keski-Uusimaa & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.5%
1.61
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Keski-Uusimaa attacking → ← attacking SalPa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Keski-Uusimaa scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

SalPa let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Keski-Uusimaa went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

SalPa lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 35
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 2.38
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tampere Utd13101228:831
2RoPS Rovaniemi1374228:1525
3JJK Jyvaskyla1473435:2224
4OLS Oulu1464426:1822
5SalPa1355328:2420
6Keski-Uusimaa1253424:1718
7VJS1245321:1517
8FC Inter Turku 21343625:3715
9Jazz Pori1352614:2014
10TPV1324713:2310
11KuPS Akatemia1322920:308
12KPV Kokkola1322911:448