Sport Picks
Kyoto vs V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan
J1 League 2026 Sanga Stadium by Kyocera, Kameoka 
Match Events
9'
9'
Thiago
28'
28'
Arai H.
51'
51'
Rafael Elias
Assist: Okugawa M.
AI Match Summary
Kyoto in this J1 League 2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kyoto.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
9%
11%
80%
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: V-Varen Nagasaki
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
93%
/ Very High Confidence
- Form's been kind to V-Varen Nagasaki lately — more wins on the board than Kyoto.
- 80% — that's where the model lands on V-Varen Nagasaki taking it.
- Regular J1 League 2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Kyoto Clean Sheet 20%
V-Varen Nagasaki Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Kyoto | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 14 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 14 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 0.88 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.38 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 2.38 | 1.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 23, 2026 J1 League
Kyoto vs V-Varen Nagasaki
1:0
Mar 18, 2026 J1 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto
1:2
Oct 2, 2021 J2 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto
2:0
Jul 3, 2021 J2 League
Kyoto vs V-Varen Nagasaki
0:2
Dec 2, 2020 J2 League
Kyoto vs V-Varen Nagasaki
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Kyoto Compare
Top Goalscorer Rafael Elias
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
V-Varen Nagasaki Compare
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Kyoto 12 / 100
V-Varen Nagasaki 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Kyoto V-Varen Nagasaki
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick VVA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: V-Varen Nagasaki conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.
Kyoto found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).
Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.
Difficult form: V-Varen Nagasaki registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Kyoto VS V-Varen Nagasaki
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Kyoto
(Home) 17 Jul
Kyoto
1 : 4 Shonan Bellmare
06 Jun
Kashiwa Reysol
0 : 1 Kyoto
30 May
Kyoto
2 : 6 Kashiwa Reysol
23 May
Kyoto
1 : 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
17 May
Kyoto
0 : 4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Page 1 of 6
17 Jul
Kyoto
1 : 4 Shonan Bellmare
30 May
Kyoto
2 : 6 Kashiwa Reysol
23 May
Kyoto
1 : 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
17 May
Kyoto
0 : 4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
02 May
Kyoto
1 : 2 Shimizu S-Pulse
Page 1 of 3
V-Varen Nagasaki
(Away) 17 Jul
Utrecht
3 : 2 V-Varen Nagasaki
14 Jul
Nijmegen
3 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
06 Jun
Mito
0 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
30 May
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 0 Mito
23 May
Kyoto
1 : 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
Page 1 of 6
17 Jul
Utrecht
3 : 2 V-Varen Nagasaki
14 Jul
Nijmegen
3 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
06 Jun
Mito
0 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
23 May
Kyoto
1 : 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
09 May
Cerezo Osaka
3 : 2 V-Varen Nagasaki
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 18 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 31:11 | 45 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 32:18 | 37 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 28:22 | 37 |
| 4 | Kawasaki Frontale | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 26:28 | 28 |
| 5 | Verdy | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 22:26 | 28 |
| 6 | Urawa Reds | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 25:22 | 25 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 28:31 | 20 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 22:24 | 20 |
| 9 | Mito | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 23:39 | 18 |
| 10 | Chiba | 18 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 18:34 | 12 |
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 29:25 | 35 |
| 2 | Cerezo Osaka | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 30:21 | 31 |
| 3 | Nagoya Grampus | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 33:31 | 31 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 31:23 | 30 |
| 5 | Gamba Osaka | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 31:25 | 28 |
| 6 | Okayama | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 26:29 | 26 |
| 7 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 23:25 | 24 |
| 8 | Kyoto | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 22:28 | 23 |
| 9 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 21:29 | 21 |
| 10 | Avispa Fukuoka | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 21:31 | 21 |
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
