Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lagoa vs GD Alcochetense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Lagoa Logo

Lagoa

1 - 2
FT
GD Alcochetense Logo

GD Alcochetense

Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Santos Soares A.
30' Event
Teixeira T.
69' Event
Pinto G.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

GD Alcochetense in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored GD Alcochetense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Lagoa
35%
Draws
40%
GD Alcochetense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: GD Alcochetense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Lagoa average 1.57 goals a game right now, well clear of GD Alcochetense's 1.55.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on GD Alcochetense taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Lagoa Clean Sheet 22%
GD Alcochetense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lagoa GD Alcochetense
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 12 12
Draws 8 10
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.57 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.3 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Lagoa vs GD Alcochetense
1:2
Dec 20, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
GD Alcochetense vs Lagoa
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lagoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Santos Soares A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

GD Alcochetense Compare

Top Goalscorer Teixeira T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pinto G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lagoa 10 / 100
GD Alcochetense 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lagoa GD Alcochetense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GD Alcochetense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lagoa found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

GD Alcochetense let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Lagoa went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lagoa VS GD Alcochetense
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lagoa

(Home)
19 Sept
Atletico CP
4 : 1
Lagoa
13 Sept
Lagoa
0 : 0
Serpa
06 Sept
Santa Clara B
1 : 2
Lagoa
23 Aug
Imortal
1 : 0
Lagoa
16 Aug
Aljustrelense
1 : 1
Lagoa
Page 1 of 6

GD Alcochetense

(Away)
20 Sept
GD Alcochetense
2 : 0
C.F. Benfica
13 Sept
GD Alcochetense
1 : 1
Imortal
06 Sept
GD Alcochetense
8 : 0
Fayal
23 Aug
GD Alcochetense
2 : 2
Portel
16 Aug
Juv. Evora
3 : 2
GD Alcochetense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)