Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 4 2011/2012

Zarautz KE

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Lagun Onak play Zarautz KE in the Tercera Division - Group 4 2011/2012. Lagun Onak are favorites here. Recently, Lagun Onak averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1 conceded. Zarautz KE averaged 0.91 goals scored and 1.72 conceded. In past meetings, Lagun Onak won 4, Zarautz KE won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 7, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.81 for Lagun Onak and 1.13 for Zarautz KE. This points to a Lagun Onak double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%

Lagun Onak

20%

Draws

22%

Zarautz KE

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lagun Onak

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

86% / Very High Confidence

Lagun Onak picked up more points recently compared to Zarautz KE.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 48%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%

Lagun Onak Clean Sheet 21%

Zarautz KE Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Lagun Onak	Zarautz KE
Matches Played	38	32
Wins	18	7
Draws	9	5
Losses	11	20
Goals Scored	1.45	0.91
Goals Conceded	1	1.72
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Zarautz KE vs Lagun Onak

Possession: 49% - 54% Cards: 2 - 1

1:1

Oct 25, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Lagun Onak vs Zarautz KE

Possession: 60% - 50% Cards: 3 - 3

5:1

Apr 20, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Lagun Onak vs Zarautz KE

Possession: 42% - 53% Cards: 2 - 3

3:1

Dec 3, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Zarautz KE vs Lagun Onak

Possession: 52% - 40% Cards: 3 - 2

1:2

Apr 9, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Zarautz KE vs Lagun Onak

Possession: 51% - 41% Cards: 1 - 3

1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lagun Onak 56 / 100

Zarautz KE 22 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Lagun Onak Zarautz KE

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lagun Onak Win (1)

Secondary Pick Lagun Onak & Under 3.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +16%

2.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.38

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Lagun Onak attacking → ← attacking Zarautz KE

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lagun Onak scored in 71% of their last 38 games.

Zarautz KE let in goals in 78% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Lagun Onak went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Zarautz KE lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

63 Points in last 5 26

1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Laudio	38	24	5	9	70:24	77
2	Barakaldo	38	22	10	6	58:29	76
3	Portugalete	38	21	11	6	60:29	74
4	Beasain	38	20	12	6	58:34	72
5	Zalla UC	38	20	12	6	57:34	72
6	Gernika Club	38	18	10	10	50:37	64
7	SCD Durango	38	18	9	11	49:41	63
8	Leioa	38	12	19	7	45:37	55
9	Zamudio	38	14	12	12	42:43	54
10	Basconia	38	13	8	17	67:67	47
11	Lagun Onak	38	10	16	12	29:31	46
12	Elgoibar	38	12	9	17	41:49	45
13	Eibar B	38	10	14	14	36:46	44
14	Arenas Getxo	38	11	10	17	45:46	43
15	Santutxu FC	38	9	13	16	36:56	40
16	Balmaseda	38	8	16	14	48:57	40
17	Alaves B	38	11	7	20	49:71	40
18	CD Vitoria	38	6	13	19	43:66	31
19	Hernani	38	6	8	24	31:71	26
20	Zarautz KE	38	4	8	26	28:74	20