Sport Picks
Lake Macquarie vs Cessnock City Hornets
Australia
Northern NSW State League 2025 
Match Events
5'
5'
Maguire J.
17'
17'
Fulwood A.
48'
48'
Own Goal
AI Match Summary
The Northern NSW State League 2025 game between Lake Macquarie and Cessnock City Hornets finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Lake Macquarie
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Lake Macquarie come out ahead of Cessnock City Hornets on wins alone.
- Lake Macquarie are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Lake Macquarie Clean Sheet 20%
Cessnock City Hornets Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lake Macquarie | Cessnock City Hornets |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 9 |
| Draws | 3 | 5 |
| Losses | 11 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 4 | 1.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 2.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 4.00 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 2.63 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 20, 2026 Northern NSW State League
Lake Macquarie vs Cessnock City Hornets
5:0
Mar 28, 2026 Northern NSW State League
Cessnock City Hornets vs Lake Macquarie
2:2
Jul 4, 2025 Northern NSW State League
Lake Macquarie vs Cessnock City Hornets
2:2
Mar 23, 2025 Northern NSW State League
Cessnock City Hornets vs Lake Macquarie
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lake Macquarie Compare
Top Goalscorer Fulwood A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 3.08
Avg xA / game 2
Cessnock City Hornets Compare
Top Goalscorer Maguire J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lake Macquarie 85 / 100
Cessnock City Hornets 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lake Macquarie Cessnock City Hornets
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Lake Macquarie scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.
Cessnock City Hornets let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.
Games between these two average 4.00 goals.
Recent resilience: Lake Macquarie stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Lake Macquarie VS Cessnock City Hornets
4 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 2.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Lake Macquarie
(Home) 25 Jul
New Lambton
1 : 5 Lake Macquarie
11 Jul
Newcastle Croatia
1 : 2 Lake Macquarie
28 Jun
Lake Macquarie
7 : 2 Dudley Redhead United
24 Jun
Lake Macquarie
7 : 1 West Wallsend FC
20 Jun
Lake Macquarie
5 : 0 Cessnock City Hornets
Page 1 of 6
28 Jun
Lake Macquarie
7 : 2 Dudley Redhead United
24 Jun
Lake Macquarie
7 : 1 West Wallsend FC
20 Jun
Lake Macquarie
5 : 0 Cessnock City Hornets
10 Jun
Lake Macquarie
3 : 0 Toronto Awaba Stags
09 May
Lake Macquarie
2 : 0 New Lambton
Page 1 of 3
Cessnock City Hornets
(Away) 26 Jul
Wallsend Red Devils
7 : 3 Cessnock City Hornets
18 Jul
Cessnock City Hornets
3 : 2 West Wallsend FC
11 Jul
Cessnock City Hornets
2 : 1 Dudley Redhead United
27 Jun
Toronto Awaba Stags
0 : 2 Cessnock City Hornets
20 Jun
Lake Macquarie
5 : 0 Cessnock City Hornets
Page 1 of 6
26 Jul
Wallsend Red Devils
7 : 3 Cessnock City Hornets
27 Jun
Toronto Awaba Stags
0 : 2 Cessnock City Hornets
20 Jun
Lake Macquarie
5 : 0 Cessnock City Hornets
09 Jun
Singleton Strikers
5 : 1 Cessnock City Hornets
17 May
Newcastle Croatia
3 : 2 Cessnock City Hornets
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kahibah | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 48:19 | 47 |
| 2 | Toronto Awaba Stags | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 47:19 | 38 |
| 3 | West Wallsend FC | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 35:30 | 25 |
| 4 | Singleton Strikers | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 29:27 | 22 |
| 5 | Dudley Redhead United | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 23:33 | 22 |
| 6 | Wallsend Red Devils | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 26:37 | 21 |
| 7 | Lake Macquarie | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 37:43 | 20 |
| 8 | South Cardiff | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 24:41 | 20 |
| 9 | Cessnock City Hornets | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 22:30 | 19 |
| 10 | Thornton Redbacks | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 28:40 | 19 |
Promotion - NPL Northern NSW (Main)
Promotion - NPL Northern NSW 2025 (Relegation)
