Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lautoka vs Marist

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Champions League 2018 Churchill Park, Lautoka
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Sub
Talo A. In: Nauania H.
Out: Talo A.
36' Event
Tome D.
45'
Drudru S.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this OFC Champions League 2018 tie, finishing 1-1. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Lautoka
20%
Draws
46%
Marist
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Marist

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Lautoka have won more games recently than Marist.
  • Marist are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Lautoka have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Lautoka, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Lautoka have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Lautoka Clean Sheet 19%
Marist Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lautoka Marist
Matches Played 34 22
Wins 20 5
Draws 7 5
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 2.09 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.35 2.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.67 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2018 OFC Champions League
Marist vs Lautoka
0:1
Apr 22, 2018 OFC Champions League
Lautoka vs Marist
1:1
Feb 14, 2010 OFC Champions League
Lautoka vs Marist
3:0
Oct 18, 2009 OFC Champions League
Marist vs Lautoka
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lautoka Compare

Top Goalscorer Vakatalesau O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83

Marist Compare

Top Goalscorer Tome D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lautoka 24 / 100
Marist 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lautoka Marist

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marist Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lautoka's goal record stands at 94% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Marist has conceded goals in 91% of their last 22 outings.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Lautoka has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lautoka VS -
2.13 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lautoka

(Home)
16 Aug
Lautoka
2 : 1
Nadi
14 Aug
Labasa
5 : 3
Lautoka
02 Aug
Lautoka
3 : 1
Nadroga
26 Jul
Ba
4 : 1
Lautoka
19 Jul
Lautoka
1 : 2
Nasinu
Page 1 of 7

Marist

(Away)
29 Apr
Marist
0 : 1
Lautoka
22 Apr
Lautoka
1 : 1
Marist
07 Apr
Nalkutan
1 : 2
Marist
02 Mar
Lupe ole Soaga
1 : 3
Marist
27 Feb
Marist
1 : 1
Magenta
Page 1 of 5

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Team Wellington 11
Lae City 0
Auckland City 2
Solomon Warriors 0
AS Dragon 1
Lautoka 2
Nalkutan 1
Marist 2
Semi-finals
Team Wellington 2
Auckland City 2
Lautoka 2
Marist 1
Final
Team Wellington 10
Lautoka 3