Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Le Havre vs Marseille

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Océane, Le Havre
Our Tip

Match Events

41'
Boufal S.
47'
Seko A.
55' Event
Greenwood M.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Marseille in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Marseille.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Le Havre
22%
Draws
18%
Marseille
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Le Havre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Le Havre haven't matched Marseille's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Le Havre's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Marseille have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Le Havre Clean Sheet 18%
Marseille Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Le Havre Marseille
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 6 14
Draws 11 4
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.38 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Ligue 1
Le Havre vs Marseille
0:1
Oct 18, 2025 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Le Havre
6:2
May 10, 2025 Ligue 1
Le Havre vs Marseille
1:3
Jan 5, 2025 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Le Havre
5:1
May 19, 2024 Ligue 1
Le Havre vs Marseille
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Le Havre 58 / 100
Marseille 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Le Havre Marseille

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HAV Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.40 goals when they meet.

Marseille let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Recent resilience: Le Havre stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Le Havre's goal record stands at 54% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Le Havre VS Marseille
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Le Havre

(Home)
25 Jul
Le Havre
2 : 1
Red Star
17 Jul
Le Havre
1 : 2
Amiens SC
17 May
Lorient
0 : 2
Le Havre
10 May
Le Havre
0 : 1
Marseille
03 May
Lille
1 : 1
Le Havre
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Marseille

(Away)
25 Jul
Marseille
0 : 3
Nice
17 May
Marseille
3 : 1
Rennes
10 May
Le Havre
0 : 1
Marseille
02 May
Nantes
3 : 0
Marseille
26 Apr
Marseille
1 : 1
Nice
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSG34244674:2976
2Lens34224866:3570
3Lille34187952:3761
4Lyon341861053:4060
5Marseille341851163:4559
6Rennes34178959:5059
7Monaco341661260:5454
8Strasbourg341581158:4753
9Toulouse341291347:4645
10Lorient3411121148:5145
11Paris FC3411111247:5044
12Brest341091543:5539
13Angers34991629:4836
14Le Havre347141332:4435
15Auxerre348101634:4434
16Nice347111637:6032
17Nantes34592029:5224
18Metz34382332:7617
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)