Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Le Havre vs Marseille

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Océane, Le Havre
Our Tip

Match Events

41'
Boufal S.
47'
Seko A.
55' Event
Greenwood M.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Marseille in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Marseille.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Le Havre
20%
Draws
0%
Marseille
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Le Havre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Le Havre haven't matched Marseille's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Le Havre's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Marseille have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Le Havre Clean Sheet 16%
Marseille Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Le Havre Marseille
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 6 13
Draws 11 3
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.03 1.58
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Ligue 1
Le Havre vs Marseille
0:1
Oct 18, 2025 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Le Havre
6:2
May 10, 2025 Ligue 1
Le Havre vs Marseille
1:3
Jan 5, 2025 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Le Havre
5:1
May 19, 2024 Ligue 1
Le Havre vs Marseille
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Le Havre 39 / 100
Marseille 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Le Havre Marseille

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Le Havre Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marseille's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 31 matches.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Marseille's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Le Havre's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Le Havre VS Marseille
0.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Le Havre

(Home)
19 Sept
Toulouse
3 : 2
Le Havre
12 Sept
Le Havre
0 : 0
Angers
05 Sept
Le Havre
1 : 2
Brest
29 Aug
Lyon
1 : 1
Le Havre
23 Aug
Le Havre
0 : 1
Monaco
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Marseille

(Away)
20 Sept
Marseille
1 : 2
PSG
17 Sept
Besiktas
4 : 1
Marseille
11 Sept
Rennes
1 : 0
Marseille
06 Sept
Marseille
2 : 3
Paris FC
30 Aug
Monaco
2 : 0
Marseille
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 34 24 4 6 74:29 76
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 66:35 70
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 52:37 61
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 53:40 60
5 Marseille 34 18 5 11 63:45 59
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 59:50 59
7 Monaco 34 16 6 12 60:54 54
8 Strasbourg 34 15 8 11 58:47 53
9 Toulouse 34 12 9 13 47:46 45
10 Lorient 34 11 12 11 48:51 45
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 47:50 44
12 Brest 34 10 9 15 43:55 39
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 29:48 36
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 32:44 35
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 34:44 34
16 Nice 34 7 11 16 37:60 32
17 Nantes 34 5 9 20 29:52 24
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 32:76 17
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)