Sport Picks

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Le Mans vs Guingamp

France France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Gueye D.
Assist: Rabillard A.
46'
Sub
Robin M. In: Bretelle L.
Out: Robin M.
52' Event
Sidibe K.
Assist: Mafouta L.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Ligue 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Le Mans
6%
Draws
4%
Guingamp
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Le Mans

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Guingamp haven't matched Le Mans's recent run of results.
  • Le Mans are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Le Mans Clean Sheet 68%
Guingamp Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Le Mans Guingamp
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 17 8
Draws 8 6
Losses 3 14
Goals Scored 1.38 0.63
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 23, 2026 Ligue 2
Le Mans vs Guingamp
1:1
Aug 9, 2025 Ligue 2
Guingamp vs Le Mans
3:3
Jul 13, 2024 Club Friendly
Le Mans vs Guingamp
2:1
Jul 14, 2023 Club Friendly
Guingamp vs Le Mans
1:0
Feb 28, 2020 Ligue 2
Le Mans vs Guingamp
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Le Mans Compare

Top Goalscorer Gueye D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Guingamp Compare

Top Goalscorer Sidibe K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Le Mans 95 / 100
Guingamp 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Le Mans Guingamp

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Le Mans scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Away concern: Guingamp has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Guingamp's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Le Mans VS Guingamp
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Le Mans

(Home)
25 Jul
Le Mans
1 : 0
Nantes
22 Jul
Le Mans
3 : 1
Versailles
18 Jul
Le Mans
2 : 3
La Roche Vendee
09 May
Bastia
0 : 2
Le Mans
02 May
Le Mans
1 : 1
Reims
Page 1 of 6

Guingamp

(Away)
25 Jul
Guingamp
0 : 2
Lorient
22 Jul
Guingamp
0 : 1
Concarneau
17 Jul
Rennes
3 : 1
Guingamp
09 May
Clermont
1 : 0
Guingamp
02 May
Guingamp
0 : 1
Bastia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Troyes34207760:3367
2Le Mans341614450:3162
3St Etienne341861059:3860
4Red Star341610845:3758
5Rodez341513645:3958
6Reims341414653:3556
7Annecy341571249:3952
8Montpellier341491141:3151
9Pau341291348:6245
10Dunkerque3411101353:4543
11Guingamp3410101442:4940
12Grenoble348151133:3939
13Clermont349101538:4437
14Nancy349101535:5237
15Boulogne34991634:4936
16Laval346141430:4832
17Bastia345131623:3928
18Amiens SC34662237:6524
19AC Ajaccio00000:00
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)