Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lecce vs Atalanta

Italy Italy

Serie A 2025/2026 Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Scalvini G.
Assist: De Ketelaere C.
46'
Sub
Fofana S. In: Gandelman O.
Out: Fofana S.
47'
Djimsiti B.

AI Match Summary

Atalanta in this Serie A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Atalanta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Lecce
15%
Draws
51%
Atalanta
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Atalanta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Atalanta average 1.38 goals a game right now, well clear of Lecce's 1.
  • Model gives Atalanta a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Atalanta have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Lecce Clean Sheet 15%
Atalanta Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lecce Atalanta
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 11
Draws 4 7
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Serie A
Lecce vs Atalanta
0:3
Sep 14, 2025 Serie A
Atalanta vs Lecce
4:1
Apr 27, 2025 Serie A
Atalanta vs Lecce
1:1
Aug 19, 2024 Serie A
Lecce vs Atalanta
0:4
May 18, 2024 Serie A
Lecce vs Atalanta
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lecce Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Atalanta Compare

Top Goalscorer Scalvini G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Krstovic N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lecce 27 / 100
Atalanta 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lecce Atalanta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atalanta Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Atalanta's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Lecce found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (29 games).

Lecce has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lecce VS Atalanta
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lecce

(Home)
13 Sept
Lecce
3 : 2
Monza
07 Sept
Cagliari
1 : 0
Lecce
31 Aug
Lecce
0 : 4
AS Roma
23 Aug
Venezia
0 : 2
Lecce
17 Aug
Palermo
2 : 0
Lecce
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Atalanta

(Away)
12 Sept
Atalanta
1 : 2
Cagliari
05 Sept
AS Roma
2 : 1
Atalanta
31 Aug
Atalanta
1 : 0
Bologna
27 Aug
Hapoel Tel Aviv
0 : 1
Atalanta
23 Aug
Atalanta
2 : 1
Sassuolo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter 38 27 6 5 89:35 87
2 Napoli 38 23 7 8 58:36 76
3 AS Roma 38 23 4 11 59:31 73
4 Como 38 20 11 7 65:29 71
5 AC Milan 38 20 10 8 53:35 70
6 Juventus 38 19 12 7 61:34 69
7 Atalanta 38 15 14 9 51:36 59
8 Bologna 38 16 8 14 49:46 56
9 Lazio 38 14 12 12 41:40 54
10 Udinese 38 14 8 16 45:48 50
11 Sassuolo 38 14 7 17 46:50 49
12 Torino 38 12 9 17 44:63 45
13 Parma 38 11 12 15 28:46 45
14 Cagliari 38 11 10 17 40:53 43
15 Fiorentina 38 9 15 14 41:50 42
16 Genoa 38 10 11 17 41:51 41
17 Lecce 38 10 8 20 28:50 38
18 Cremonese 38 8 10 20 32:57 34
19 Verona 38 3 12 23 25:61 21
20 Pisa 38 2 12 24 26:71 18
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B (Main)