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Leeds vs Brighton

England England

Premier League 2025/2026 Elland Road, Leeds
Our Tip

Match Events

60'
Sub
James D. In: Gnonto W.
Out: James D.
60'
Sub
Tanaka A. In: Longstaff S.
Out: Tanaka A.
60'
Sub
Aaronson B. In: Nmecha L.
Out: Aaronson B.

AI Match Summary

Leeds in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leeds.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Leeds
40%
Draws
29%
Brighton
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Brighton haven't matched Leeds's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Leeds Clean Sheet 19%
Brighton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leeds Brighton
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 11 9
Draws 10 7
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.5 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Premier League
Leeds vs Brighton
1:0
Nov 1, 2025 Premier League
Brighton vs Leeds
3:0
Mar 11, 2023 Premier League
Leeds vs Brighton
2:2
Aug 27, 2022 Premier League
Brighton vs Leeds
1:0
May 15, 2022 Premier League
Leeds vs Brighton
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leeds Compare

Top Goalscorer Calvert-Lewin D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Brighton Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leeds 32 / 100
Brighton 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leeds Brighton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Leeds scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Brighton has conceded goals in 74% of their last 27 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Leeds stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Leeds VS Brighton
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Leeds

(Home)
25 Jul
Wrexham
3 : 2
Leeds
24 May
West Ham
3 : 0
Leeds
17 May
Leeds
1 : 0
Brighton
11 May
Tottenham
1 : 1
Leeds
01 May
Leeds
3 : 1
Burnley
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Brighton

(Away)
24 May
Brighton
0 : 3
Manchester United
17 May
Leeds
1 : 0
Brighton
09 May
Brighton
3 : 0
Wolves
02 May
Newcastle Utd
3 : 1
Brighton
21 Apr
Brighton
3 : 0
Chelsea
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Arsenal38267571:2785
2Manchester City38239677:3578
3Manchester United382011769:5071
4Aston Villa381981156:4965
5Liverpool381791263:5360
6Bournemouth381318758:5457
7Sunderland3814121242:4854
8Brighton3814111352:4653
9Brentford3814111355:5253
10Chelsea3814101458:5252
11Fulham381571647:5152
12Newcastle Utd381471753:5549
13Everton3813101547:5049
14Leeds3811141349:5647
15Crystal Palace3811121541:5145
16Nottingham3811111648:5144
17Tottenham3810111748:5741
18West Ham381091946:6539
19Burnley384102438:7522
20Wolves383112427:6820
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship (Main)