Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Legnano vs Castellanzese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Bagatini T.
8' Event
Chessa M.
(Penalty)
11' Event
Chessa M.

AI Match Summary

Castellanzese in this Serie D - Group B 2023/2024 tie, finishing 0-5. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Legnano
20%
Draws
34%
Castellanzese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Legnano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Castellanzese at 1.16 per game, Legnano at 0.9.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Legnano, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Legnano Clean Sheet 22%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Legnano Castellanzese
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 9
Draws 7 9
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 0.9 1.16
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Legnano vs Castellanzese
0:5
Mar 24, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Legnano
0:0
Nov 12, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Legnano vs Castellanzese
2:1
Feb 19, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Castellanzese vs Legnano
0:3
Oct 16, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Legnano vs Castellanzese
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Legnano Compare

Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Castellanzese Compare

Top Goalscorer Chessa M.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Boccadamo S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Legnano 37 / 100
Castellanzese 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Legnano Castellanzese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castellanzese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Legnano scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Castellanzese has conceded goals in 72% of their last 32 outings.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Legnano went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Castellanzese
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Legnano

(Home)
12 May
Legnano
0 : 5
Castellanzese
05 May
Ciserano-Bergamo
1 : 3
Legnano
28 Apr
Legnano
3 : 1
USD Casatese
21 Apr
Villa Valle
1 : 1
Legnano
14 Apr
Legnano
1 : 1
Varesina
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Castellanzese

(Away)
20 Sept
Solbiatese
1 : 4
Castellanzese
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
12 Sept
Lentigione
1 : 0
Castellanzese
06 Sept
Castellanzese
3 : 1
US Pontedera
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2
Varesina
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Legnano 0
Castellanzese 5