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Stadium Background

Lens vs Nantes

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Sima A.
36'
Bulatovic A.
46'
Sub
Fofana R. In: Sotoca F.
Out: Fofana R.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Lens and Nantes finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lens.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Lens
11%
Draws
9%
Nantes
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Lens

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Lens carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Lens taking it.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Lens here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Lens Clean Sheet 20%
Nantes Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lens Nantes
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 20 5
Draws 4 7
Losses 5 17
Goals Scored 2.5 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.13 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2026 Ligue 1
Lens vs Nantes
1:0
Dec 6, 2025 Ligue 1
Nantes vs Lens
1:2
Feb 23, 2025 Ligue 1
Nantes vs Lens
3:1
Nov 9, 2024 Ligue 1
Lens vs Nantes
3:2
Feb 3, 2024 Ligue 1
Nantes vs Lens
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lens Compare

Top Goalscorer Soares M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Nantes Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lens 76 / 100
Nantes 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lens Nantes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lens's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Nantes let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Lens remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lens VS Nantes
2.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lens

(Home)
25 Jul
Lens
2 : 2
Charleroi
18 Jul
Lens
4 : 1
Boulogne
22 May
Lens
3 : 1
Nice
17 May
Lyon
0 : 4
Lens
13 May
Lens
0 : 2
PSG
Page 1 of 6

Nantes

(Away)
25 Jul
Le Mans
1 : 0
Nantes
22 Jul
Nantes
1 : 1
La Roche Vendee
18 Jul
Lorient
1 : 0
Nantes
11 Jul
Fleury-Merogis
0 : 5
Nantes
17 May
Nantes
0 : 0
Toulouse
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSG34244674:2976
2Lens34224866:3570
3Lille34187952:3761
4Lyon341861053:4060
5Marseille341851163:4559
6Rennes34178959:5059
7Monaco341661260:5454
8Strasbourg341581158:4753
9Toulouse341291347:4645
10Lorient3411121148:5145
11Paris FC3411111247:5044
12Brest341091543:5539
13Angers34991629:4836
14Le Havre347141332:4435
15Auxerre348101634:4434
16Nice347111637:6032
17Nantes34592029:5224
18Metz34382332:7617
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)