Sport Picks
Leones Negros vs Alacranes de Durango - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara 
Match Events
8'
8'
Gonzalez J.
25'
25'
Hernandez S. A.
Assist: Razo L.
35'
35'
Sepulveda L.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
15%
42%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leones Negros
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Alacranes de Durango have won more games recently than Leones Negros.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- Alacranes de Durango arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Leones Negros, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 11%
Alacranes de Durango Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Leones Negros | Alacranes de Durango |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 15 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 9 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.7 | 1.67 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.48 | 0.87 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 8, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Alacranes de Durango
2:1
Nov 6, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Leones Negros
1:0
Aug 23, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Leones Negros
1:2
Feb 8, 2023 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Alacranes de Durango
1:0
Aug 17, 2022 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Leones Negros
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Leones Negros Compare
Top Goalscorer Hernandez S. A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Brigido J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Alacranes de Durango Compare
Top Goalscorer Munoz J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Leones Negros 30 / 100
Alacranes de Durango 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Leones Negros Alacranes de Durango
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Leones Negros's goal record stands at 85% scoring rate across 27 recent games.
Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.
Leones Negros went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Alacranes de Durango let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.
Scoring Trends
Leones Negros VS Alacranes de Durango
2.13 Goals Scored 2.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Leones Negros
(Home) 08 Nov
Leones Negros
2 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
06 Nov
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 0 Leones Negros
01 Nov
Leones Negros
3 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
25 Oct
Zacatecas Mineros
0 : 2 Leones Negros
18 Oct
Leones Negros
1 : 2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 6
08 Nov
Leones Negros
2 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
01 Nov
Leones Negros
3 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
18 Oct
Leones Negros
1 : 2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
04 Oct
Leones Negros
6 : 3 Dorados de Sinaloa
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
Page 1 of 3
Alacranes de Durango
(Away) 08 Nov
Leones Negros
2 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
06 Nov
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 0 Leones Negros
01 Nov
Alacranes de Durango
3 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
24 Oct
Venados FC
3 : 2 Alacranes de Durango
18 Oct
Alacranes de Durango
5 : 0 Tapatio
Page 1 of 6
08 Nov
Leones Negros
2 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
24 Oct
Venados FC
3 : 2 Alacranes de Durango
11 Oct
Jaiba Brava
0 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
27 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
0 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
Quarter-finals
Atletico La Paz 4
Tlaxcala 3
Piratas 2
Cancun 2
Leones Negros 2
Alacranes de Durango 2
Club Atletico Morelia 4
Venados FC 2
Semi-finals
Atletico La Paz -
Piratas -
Leones Negros -
Club Atletico Morelia -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
