Sport Picks
Leones Negros vs Club Atletico Morelia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara 
AI Match Summary
The first leg ended 2-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Little to choose between these two on current form. Leones Negros have averaged 1.7 scored and 1.48 conceded recently, against Club Atletico Morelia's 1.5 scored and 1.32 conceded. Head-to-head, Leones Negros have won 3 to Club Atletico Morelia's 2, with 0 draws. They last met on Sep 20, 2026, ending 2:0. The numbers (1.75 xG vs 1.44) point toward Leones Negros. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Leones Negros haven't matched Club Atletico Morelia's recent run of results.
- Model gives Leones Negros a 43% chance of winning this.
- Club Atletico Morelia arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Leones Negros, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Leones Negros | Club Atletico Morelia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 28 |
| Wins | 11 | 13 |
| Draws | 7 | 4 |
| Losses | 9 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.48 | 1.32 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Leones Negros found the back of the net in 85% of recent matches (27 games).
Club Atletico Morelia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Leones Negros has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
