Sport Picks
Leones Negros vs Club Atletico Morelia
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara 
Match Events
29'
29'
Sandoval L.
39'
39'
Aguayo J.
45'
45'
Hernandez S. A.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 game between Leones Negros and Club Atletico Morelia finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leones Negros.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
33%
27%
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Leones Negros
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Club Atletico Morelia come out ahead of Leones Negros on wins alone.
- Model gives Leones Negros a 40% chance of winning this.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Leones Negros have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 20%
Club Atletico Morelia Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Leones Negros | Club Atletico Morelia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 12 |
| Draws | 5 | 8 |
| Losses | 15 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.38 | 1.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 5, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Club Atletico Morelia
2:0
Oct 26, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Leones Negros
2:3
May 11, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Club Atletico Morelia
2:0
May 4, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Leones Negros
2:0
Mar 21, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Club Atletico Morelia
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Leones Negros Compare
Top Goalscorer Aguayo J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Gil O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Club Atletico Morelia Compare
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Leones Negros 40 / 100
Club Atletico Morelia 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Leones Negros Club Atletico Morelia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick LEO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Leones Negros scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.
H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Leones Negros remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Defensive concern: Club Atletico Morelia conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Leones Negros VS Club Atletico Morelia
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Leones Negros
(Home) 25 Jul
Tlaxcala
2 : 4 Leones Negros
19 Apr
Leones Negros
1 : 2 Cancun
12 Apr
Venados FC
2 : 1 Leones Negros
05 Apr
Leones Negros
2 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
28 Mar
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 6
19 Apr
Leones Negros
1 : 2 Cancun
05 Apr
Leones Negros
2 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
22 Mar
Leones Negros
1 : 3 Zacatecas Mineros
01 Mar
Leones Negros
1 : 1 Atlante
15 Feb
Leones Negros
0 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 3
Club Atletico Morelia
(Away) 26 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 2 Atletico La Paz
05 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
3 : 3 Cruz Azul
20 Jun
Necaxa
1 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
26 Apr
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
23 Apr
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 6
20 Jun
Necaxa
1 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
23 Apr
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
19 Apr
Jaiba Brava
1 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
05 Apr
Leones Negros
2 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
22 Mar
Tapatio
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)