Sport Picks
Leones Negros vs Tepatitlan de Morelos - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara 
Match Events
13'
13'
Gonzalez S.
16'
16'
Hernandez S. A.
22'
22'
Villalpando D.
Assist: Casas B.
AI Match Summary
Leones Negros in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leones Negros.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
77%
15%
8%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leones Negros
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
77%
/ Very High Confidence
- Leones Negros have won more games recently than Tepatitlan de Morelos.
- Win probability leans Leones Negros's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 20%
Tepatitlan de Morelos Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Leones Negros | Tepatitlan de Morelos |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 31 |
| Wins | 11 | 8 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 9 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.7 | 1.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.48 | 1.94 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.44 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 1, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
3:1
Feb 15, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
0:0
Sep 7, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Leones Negros
1:1
Apr 27, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
2:1
Apr 25, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Leones Negros
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Leones Negros Compare
Top Goalscorer Hernandez S. A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Gil O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22
Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare
Top Goalscorer Villalpando D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Leones Negros 85 / 100
Tepatitlan de Morelos 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Leones Negros Tepatitlan de Morelos
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Leones Negros Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Leones Negros's goal record stands at 85% scoring rate across 27 recent games.
Defensive concern: Tepatitlan de Morelos conceded in 77% of 31 recent games.
These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.
Leones Negros has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Leones Negros VS Tepatitlan de Morelos
2.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Leones Negros
(Home) 08 Nov
Leones Negros
2 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
06 Nov
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 0 Leones Negros
01 Nov
Leones Negros
3 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
25 Oct
Zacatecas Mineros
0 : 2 Leones Negros
18 Oct
Leones Negros
1 : 2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 6
08 Nov
Leones Negros
2 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
01 Nov
Leones Negros
3 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
18 Oct
Leones Negros
1 : 2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
04 Oct
Leones Negros
6 : 3 Dorados de Sinaloa
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
Page 1 of 3
Tepatitlan de Morelos
(Away) 01 Nov
Leones Negros
3 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
24 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 4 Cancun
18 Oct
Piratas
3 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
13 Oct
Tapatio
4 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
10 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 7
01 Nov
Leones Negros
3 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
18 Oct
Piratas
3 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
13 Oct
Tapatio
4 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
29 Aug
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
6 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico La Paz | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 36:18 | 30 |
| 2 | Leones Negros | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 34:20 | 30 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 4 | Piratas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 27:15 | 25 |
| 5 | Cancun | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28:18 | 25 |
| 6 | Venados FC | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 31:25 | 25 |
| 7 | Alacranes de Durango | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21:15 | 24 |
| 8 | Tlaxcala | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 29:27 | 22 |
| 9 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 15:25 | 22 |
| 10 | Zacatecas Mineros | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 26:26 | 18 |
| 11 | Tapatio | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 25:28 | 18 |
| 12 | Correcaminos | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 21:24 | 17 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 23:32 | 16 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15:25 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 17:24 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 15 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 11:44 | 7 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
