Sport Picks

France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Auxerre

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Lille play Auxerre in the Ligue 1 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Lille averaged 1.63 goals scored and 0.63 conceded. Auxerre averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Lille won 2, Auxerre won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 17, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Lille and 1.13 for Auxerre. This points to a Lille double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Lille

39%

Draws

30%

Auxerre

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Lille has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Auxerre.
Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Ligue 1 2025/2026 provide steady trend data.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%

Lille Clean Sheet 20%

Auxerre Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Lille	Auxerre
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	13	6
Draws	5	10
Losses	11	13
Goals Scored	1.63	1.63
Goals Conceded	0.63	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.63	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Ligue 1

Lille vs Auxerre

Possession: 59% - 52% Cards: 1 - 0

0:2

Dec 14, 2025 Ligue 1

Auxerre vs Lille

Possession: 44% - 54% Cards: 0 - 2

3:4

Apr 20, 2025 Ligue 1

Lille vs Auxerre

Possession: 57% - 42% Cards: 3 - 2

3:1

Jan 10, 2025 Ligue 1

Auxerre vs Lille

Possession: 41% - 49% Cards: 4 - 3

0:0

Apr 22, 2023 Ligue 1

Auxerre vs Lille

Possession: 42% - 57% Cards: 3 - 2

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lille Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Auxerre Compare

Top Goalscorer Sinayoko L.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lille 32 / 100

Auxerre 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Lille Auxerre

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AUX Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lille scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Auxerre let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Lille went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Auxerre lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lille VS Auxerre

1.63 Goals Scored 1.63

0.63 Goals Conceded 1.13

75% Over 1.5 75%

50% Over 2.5 63%

13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	PSG	34	24	4	6	74:29	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	66:35	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	52:37	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	53:40	60
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	63:45	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	59:50	59
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	60:54	54
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	58:47	53
9	Toulouse	34	12	9	13	47:46	45
10	Lorient	34	11	12	11	48:51	45
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	47:50	44
12	Brest	34	10	9	15	43:55	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	29:48	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	32:44	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	34:44	34
16	Nice	34	7	11	16	37:60	32
17	Nantes	34	5	9	20	29:52	24
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	32:76	17