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Llosetense vs Mercadal

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Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026
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Match Events

13' Event
23' Event
45' Event

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026 game between Llosetense and Mercadal finished 6-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Llosetense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Llosetense
30%
Draws
41%
Mercadal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mercadal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Llosetense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Llosetense a 29% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Llosetense Clean Sheet 68%
Mercadal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Llosetense Mercadal
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 13 12
Draws 10 4
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.63 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Llosetense vs Mercadal
6:1
Nov 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Llosetense
0:0
Apr 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Llosetense vs Mercadal
3:1
Nov 24, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Llosetense
4:0
Apr 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Llosetense
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Llosetense 77 / 100
Mercadal 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Llosetense Mercadal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Llosetense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Llosetense's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Defensive concern: Mercadal conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Llosetense has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Llosetense VS Mercadal
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Llosetense

(Home)
19 Sept
Llosetense
0 : 0
Formentera
12 Sept
Andratx
1 : 0
Llosetense
05 Sept
Llosetense
2 : 0
Sineu
23 May
Manacor
2 : 1
Llosetense
17 May
Llosetense
1 : 1
Manacor
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Mercadal

(Away)
19 Sept
Mercadal
1 : 2
Arenal
12 Sept
Inter Ibiza
0 : 2
Mercadal
05 Sept
Mercadal
1 : 1
Formentera
10 May
Mercadal
3 : 2
Alcudia
03 May
Mallorca B
7 : 0
Mercadal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mallorca B 34 26 6 2 105:22 84
2 Manacor 34 24 5 5 71:39 77
3 Pena Deportiva 34 20 8 6 69:30 68
4 Constancia 34 19 5 10 62:29 62
5 Llosetense 34 16 10 8 59:40 58
6 Formentera 34 13 13 8 40:29 52
7 Inter Ibiza 34 15 5 14 42:43 50
8 Mercadal 34 15 4 15 31:45 49
9 Cardassar 34 12 8 14 38:55 44
10 Platges de Calvia 34 12 6 16 41:43 42
11 Binissalem 34 10 11 13 26:34 41
12 Santanyi 34 11 8 15 43:58 41
13 Alcudia 34 11 5 18 37:62 38
14 CD Son Cladera 34 11 5 18 41:63 38
15 Portmany 34 8 6 20 25:50 30
16 Collerense 34 6 10 18 41:64 28
17 Felanitx 34 5 11 18 32:62 26
18 Rotlet Molinar 34 5 8 21 34:69 23
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026 (Play Offs)