Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lobos UPNFM vs Olancho

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse, Choluteca
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Nunez J. In: Ponce J.
Out: Nunez J.
58'
Velasquez A. G.
61'
Sub
Avila V. In: Andino E.
Out: Avila V.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga Nacional matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Lobos UPNFM
35%
Draws
26%
Olancho
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lobos UPNFM

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

26% / Low Confidence
  • Olancho have won more games recently than Lobos UPNFM.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Lobos UPNFM Clean Sheet 18%
Olancho Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lobos UPNFM Olancho
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 8 11
Draws 9 14
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 1 1.26
Goals Conceded 1.42 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs Olancho
1:1
Mar 24, 2026 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs Olancho
2:1
Feb 2, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olancho vs Lobos UPNFM
1:1
Nov 8, 2025 Liga Nacional
Olancho vs Lobos UPNFM
1:1
Sep 10, 2025 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs Olancho
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lobos UPNFM Compare

Top Goalscorer Villafranca J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Olancho Compare

Top Goalscorer Joanderson
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lobos UPNFM 36 / 100
Olancho 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lobos UPNFM Olancho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Olancho Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lobos UPNFM's goal record stands at 65% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Olancho's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Lobos UPNFM remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lobos UPNFM VS Olancho
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lobos UPNFM

(Home)
18 Sept
Platense
0 : 2
Lobos UPNFM
13 Sept
Lobos UPNFM
1 : 0
CD Choloma
06 Sept
Real Espana
2 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
29 Aug
Juticalpa
1 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
22 Aug
Motagua
4 : 1
Lobos UPNFM
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Olancho

(Away)
19 Sept
Genesis FC
0 : 0
Olancho
12 Sept
Olancho
1 : 1
Real Espana
05 Sept
CD Choloma
0 : 0
Olancho
30 Aug
Motagua
2 : 1
Olancho
23 Aug
Olancho
1 : 1
Olimpia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 8 5 3 0 13:4 18
2 Olimpia 8 5 2 1 19:7 17
3 Marathon 8 5 2 1 14:6 17
4 Motagua 8 4 1 3 11:8 13
5 Genesis FC 8 3 2 3 10:6 11
6 Olancho 8 2 5 1 6:5 11
7 Estrella 8 2 3 3 13:16 9
8 Atletico Independiente 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
9 Lobos UPNFM 8 2 2 4 7:12 8
10 CD Choloma 8 2 1 5 6:8 7
11 Juticalpa 8 2 0 6 8:19 6
12 Platense 8 1 2 5 6:18 5
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Relegation - Liga Nacional (Relegation)