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Lobos UPNFM vs Victoria

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse, Choluteca
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Pena K.
32' Event
Nunez J.
34' Event
Ramirez L.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga Nacional 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Lobos UPNFM
15%
Draws
28%
Victoria
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lobos UPNFM

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lobos UPNFM lately — more wins on the board than Victoria.
  • Model gives Lobos UPNFM a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Lobos UPNFM Clean Sheet 68%
Victoria Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lobos UPNFM Victoria
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 8 7
Draws 9 6
Losses 14 17
Goals Scored 1 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.58 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Liga Nacional
Victoria vs Lobos UPNFM
3:2
Feb 12, 2026 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs Victoria
2:2
Oct 26, 2025 Liga Nacional
Victoria vs Lobos UPNFM
0:1
Aug 16, 2025 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs Victoria
2:0
Apr 2, 2025 Liga Nacional
Victoria vs Lobos UPNFM
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lobos UPNFM Compare

Top Goalscorer Pena K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nunez J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.22
Avg xA / game 0.79

Victoria Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramirez L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lahera Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lobos UPNFM 68 / 100
Victoria 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lobos UPNFM Victoria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lobos UPNFM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Victoria's defensive record shows goals conceded in 97% of 30 matches.

Lobos UPNFM found the back of the net in 65% of recent matches (31 games).

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Victoria registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lobos UPNFM VS Victoria
0.88 Goals Scored 1.14
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.29
75% Over 1.5 86%
38% Over 2.5 71%
25% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Lobos UPNFM

(Home)
18 Sept
Platense
0 : 2
Lobos UPNFM
13 Sept
Lobos UPNFM
1 : 0
CD Choloma
06 Sept
Real Espana
2 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
29 Aug
Juticalpa
1 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
22 Aug
Motagua
4 : 1
Lobos UPNFM
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Victoria

(Away)
01 May
Victoria
1 : 2
Real Espana
27 Apr
Genesis FC
2 : 0
Victoria
22 Apr
Victoria
2 : 1
Juticalpa
20 Apr
Olancho
1 : 0
Victoria
17 Apr
Victoria
2 : 3
Motagua
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 20 11 7 2 37:25 40
2 Motagua 20 11 6 3 36:17 39
3 Olimpia 20 11 5 4 35:17 38
4 Olancho 20 8 8 4 28:16 32
5 Marathon 20 7 6 7 23:19 27
6 Genesis FC 20 6 5 9 20:28 23
7 CD Choloma 20 6 5 9 23:32 23
8 Platense 20 5 6 9 26:29 21
9 Lobos UPNFM 20 5 6 9 23:30 21
10 Juticalpa 20 4 6 10 18:41 18
11 Victoria 20 4 4 12 25:40 16
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Triangulares)