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Longford vs Finn Harps

Ireland Ireland

Division 1 Bishopsgate
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Longford play Finn Harps in the Division 1. It looks like a close match. Recently, Longford averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. Finn Harps averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.72 conceded. In past meetings, Longford won 0, Finn Harps won 1, and they drew 4. Their last match on May 22, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.06 for Longford and 1.38 for Finn Harps. This points to a Longford double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Longford
35%
Draws
26%
Finn Harps
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Longford

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Longford picked up more points recently compared to Finn Harps.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.06 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
Over 3.5 Goals 30%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Longford Clean Sheet 17%
Finn Harps Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Longford Finn Harps
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 6
Draws 7 8
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.21 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 Division 1
Finn Harps vs Longford
2:2
Mar 28, 2026 Division 1
Longford vs Finn Harps
0:1
Sep 5, 2025 Division 1
Longford vs Finn Harps
1:1
Jul 4, 2025 Division 1
Finn Harps vs Longford
0:0
May 17, 2025 Division 1
Longford vs Finn Harps
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Longford Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Finn Harps Compare

Top Goalscorer Bradley-Walsh J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Longford 39 / 100
Finn Harps 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Longford Finn Harps

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Longford or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.5%
2.27
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Longford attacking → ← attacking Finn Harps

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Longford scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Finn Harps let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Longford went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Finn Harps lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 26
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Cork City23173346:1554
2Bray23107646:3037
3UC Dublin23113936:2736
4Longford2387827:3031
5Cobh Ramblers23941025:3231
6Wexford2377927:3228
7Athlone23761021:2727
8Kerry2368924:2926
9Treaty United23581022:3423
10Finn Harps23571120:3822