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Lorca Deportiva vs Ilicitano

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 3
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Sciancalepore M.
27' Event
Fernandez S.
Penalty Missed
81'
Miralles A.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 3 game between Lorca Deportiva and Ilicitano finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Lorca Deportiva
20%
Draws
51%
Ilicitano
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ilicitano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Ilicitano carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Lorca Deportiva taking it.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Lorca Deportiva Clean Sheet 20%
Ilicitano Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lorca Deportiva Ilicitano
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 11
Draws 7 7
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 0.76 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 3
Lorca Deportiva vs Ilicitano
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lorca Deportiva Compare

Top Goalscorer Naranjo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Ilicitano Compare

Top Goalscorer Sciancalepore M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lorca Deportiva 36 / 100
Ilicitano 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lorca Deportiva Ilicitano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Ilicitano conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Lorca Deportiva's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Solid form: Lorca Deportiva remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lorca Deportiva VS Ilicitano
0.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
38% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Lorca Deportiva

(Home)
13 Sept
Orihuela
1 : 0
Lorca Deportiva
06 Sept
Lorca Deportiva
1 : 1
Ilicitano
15 Aug
Aguilas FC
1 : 0
Lorca Deportiva
12 Aug
Lorca Deportiva
0 : 1
Murcia
06 Aug
Lorca Deportiva
1 : 0
Aguilas FC
Page 1 of 6

Ilicitano

(Away)
13 Sept
Ciudad Cieza
1 : 0
Ilicitano
06 Sept
Lorca Deportiva
1 : 1
Ilicitano
22 Aug
Albacete B
0 : 1
Ilicitano
19 Aug
Ilicitano
2 : 0
FC Cartagena SAD
08 Aug
Ilicitano
1 : 3
Torrellano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Nucia 2 2 0 0 6:1 6
2 Castellonense 2 2 0 0 4:2 6
3 Orihuela 2 2 0 0 3:1 6
4 CF Intercity 2 1 1 0 4:3 4
5 Yeclano 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
6 Ciudad Cieza 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
7 Deportiva Minera 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
8 Castellon B 2 1 0 1 4:2 3
9 UCAM Murcia 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
10 Mallorca B 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
11 Baleares 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
12 Valencia B 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
13 Lorca Deportiva 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
14 Pena Deportiva 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
15 Ilicitano 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
16 Alcoyano 2 0 1 1 1:4 1
17 UD Poblense 2 0 0 2 1:3 0
18 Real Murcia B 2 0 0 2 2:7 0
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Play Out)