Sport Picks
Match Events
2'
2'
Magnaghi S.
12'
12'
Visconti E.
14'
14'
Sub
Capuano M. In: Vallocchia A.
Out: Capuano M.
AI Match Summary
Lucchese in this Serie C - Group B 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lucchese.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
30%
31%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lucchese
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Lucchese lately — more wins on the board than Ternana.
- 39% — that's where the model lands on Lucchese taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Lucchese Clean Sheet 68%
Ternana Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lucchese | Ternana |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 10 |
| Draws | 8 | 8 |
| Losses | 8 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.75 | 1.31 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.68 | 1.24 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 30, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Lucchese vs Ternana
4:1
Nov 17, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Ternana vs Lucchese
5:0
Jan 16, 2011 Lega Pro C1/B
Ternana vs Lucchese
0:1
Sep 5, 2010 Lega Pro C1/B
Lucchese vs Ternana
4:0
Aug 24, 1999 Coppa Italia
Lucchese vs Ternana
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lucchese Compare
Top Goalscorer Magnaghi S.
2 Goals Assists Leader Visconti E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91
Ternana Compare
Top Goalscorer Cicerelli E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lucchese 68 / 100
Ternana 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lucchese Ternana
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Lucchese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lucchese scored in 82% of their last 28 games.
H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.
Defensive concern: Ternana conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.
Solid form: Lucchese remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Lucchese VS Ternana
2 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Lucchese
(Home) 04 Oct
Grassina
3 : 6 Lucchese
27 Sept
Lucchese
3 : 2 Siena
20 Sept
Rondinella
0 : 0 Lucchese
16 Sept
Lucchese
5 : 0 SCD Progresso
12 Sept
Seravezza Pozzi
5 : 0 Lucchese
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Lucchese
3 : 2 Siena
16 Sept
Lucchese
5 : 0 SCD Progresso
06 Sept
Lucchese
2 : 1 Montevarchi
17 May
Lucchese
1 : 0 Sestri Levante
27 Apr
Lucchese
3 : 2 Sassari Torres
Page 1 of 3
Ternana
(Away) 04 Oct
Ternana
4 : 1 Montevarchi
27 Sept
Scandicci
0 : 0 Ternana
20 Sept
Ternana
3 : 0 Tau
16 Sept
Mezzolara
2 : 1 Ternana
12 Sept
Ternana
1 : 1 Follonica Gavorrano
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Scandicci
0 : 0 Ternana
16 Sept
Mezzolara
2 : 1 Ternana
06 Sept
Prato
1 : 0 Ternana
03 May
Pianese
1 : 1 Ternana
18 Apr
Bra
1 : 2 Ternana
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Entella | 38 | 23 | 14 | 1 | 61:24 | 83 |
| 2 | Ternana | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 64:23 | 74 |
| 3 | Sassari Torres | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 55:36 | 68 |
| 4 | Pescara | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 55:35 | 67 |
| 5 | Arezzo | 38 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 48:37 | 64 |
| 6 | Vis Pesaro | 38 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 44:34 | 58 |
| 7 | Pineto | 38 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 46:49 | 57 |
| 8 | Pianese | 38 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 48:48 | 53 |
| 9 | Rimini | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 45:35 | 51 |
| 10 | US Pontedera | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 54:54 | 48 |
| 11 | Gubbio | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 32:42 | 48 |
| 12 | Perugia | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 43:41 | 47 |
| 13 | Carpi | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 41:48 | 44 |
| 14 | Campobasso | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 36:46 | 43 |
| 15 | Ascoli | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 37:46 | 40 |
| 16 | Lucchese | 38 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 47:64 | 39 |
| 17 | Spal | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 41:61 | 35 |
| 18 | AC Milan U23 | 38 | 7 | 13 | 18 | 36:57 | 34 |
| 19 | Sestri Levante | 38 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 34:54 | 31 |
| 20 | Legnago Salus | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 30:63 | 29 |
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 (Play Out)
