Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Luparense FC vs Castegnato

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
De Zen R.
70' Event
Buongiorno D.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Luparense FC advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Luparense FC
6%
Draws
4%
Castegnato
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Luparense FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Luparense FC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Luparense FC taking it.
  • Luparense FC have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Luparense FC, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Luparense FC here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Luparense FC Clean Sheet 68%
Castegnato Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Luparense FC Castegnato
Matches Played 42 30
Wins 15 7
Draws 15 9
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1 0
Goals Conceded 1 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Luparense FC vs Castegnato
2:0
Mar 17, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Luparense FC vs Castegnato
3:0
Nov 5, 2023 Serie D - Group C
Castegnato vs Luparense FC
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Luparense FC Compare

Top Goalscorer De Zen R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Castegnato Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Luparense FC 95 / 100
Castegnato 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Luparense FC Castegnato

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LUP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castegnato has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Luparense FC found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (42 games).

Historical meetings average 2.33 goals per match.

Solid form: Luparense FC remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Luparense FC VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Luparense FC

(Home)
03 May
Este
2 : 0
Luparense FC
26 Apr
Luparense FC
1 : 0
Vigasio
19 Apr
Conegliano
1 : 1
Luparense FC
12 Apr
Luparense FC
1 : 2
Mestre
02 Apr
FC Obermais
1 : 1
Luparense FC
Page 1 of 9

Castegnato

(Away)
12 May
Luparense FC
2 : 0
Castegnato
05 May
Adriese
5 : 2
Castegnato
28 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 2
Treviso
21 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 4
Montecchio Maggiore
14 Apr
Chions
2 : 2
Castegnato
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Luparense FC2
Castegnato0
Breno1
Cjarlins Muzane1