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Lusail vs Al Markhiya

Qatar Qatar

QSL Cup
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Lucao
52' Event
Roustaei A.
74' Event
Lucao

AI Match Summary

Al Markhiya in this QSL Cup tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Lusail
30%
Draws
34%
Al Markhiya
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lusail

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Al Markhiya lately — more wins on the board than Lusail.
  • Lusail are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Al Markhiya arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Al Markhiya, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Lusail Clean Sheet 20%
Al Markhiya Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lusail Al Markhiya
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 12 13
Draws 6 8
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.75 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Division 2
Al Markhiya vs Lusail
0:2
Dec 21, 2025 Division 2
Lusail vs Al Markhiya
2:1
Nov 15, 2025 QSL Cup
Lusail vs Al Markhiya
1:2
Feb 3, 2025 Division 2
Lusail vs Al Markhiya
0:1
Sep 19, 2024 Division 2
Al Markhiya vs Lusail
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lusail Compare

Top Goalscorer Roustaei A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Al Markhiya Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucao
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lusail 36 / 100
Al Markhiya 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lusail Al Markhiya

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lusail's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Al Markhiya conceded in 77% of 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Al Markhiya lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lusail VS Al Markhiya
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lusail

(Home)
24 Jul
Den Bosch
2 : 1
Lusail
18 Jul
Dordrecht
5 : 0
Lusail
30 Apr
Lusail
1 : 2
Al Bidda
25 Apr
Al Markhiya
0 : 2
Lusail
12 Apr
Lusail
3 : 0
Al Mesaimeer
Page 1 of 7

Al Markhiya

(Away)
30 Apr
Al Khor
0 : 3
Al Markhiya
25 Apr
Al Markhiya
0 : 2
Lusail
12 Apr
Al-Waab
1 : 1
Al Markhiya
05 Apr
Al Markhiya
3 : 4
Muaither SC
25 Mar
Muaither SC
3 : 2
Al Markhiya
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Rayyan1081132:1725
2Umm-Salal1062226:1720
3Muaither SC1062221:1320
4Al Arabi (Qatar)1061327:1619
5Al-Waab1053216:1118
6Al Markhiya1053213:1218
7Al Sailiya1060416:1718
8Al-Shahaniya1052313:1117
9Shamal1043319:1115
10Al Bidda1043315:1415
11Al Khor1041518:1713
12Al Mesaimeer1034318:1713
13Qatar SC1041523:2313
14Al-Kharitiyath1041519:2013
15Al Ahli1023513:219
16Al-Duhail102354:179
17Lusail1014515:267
18Al Wakra1013617:226
19Al-Gharafa1012712:225
20Al-Sadd1012718:315
Promotion - QSL Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - QSL Cup (Play Offs)