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Luzern vs Basel - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Switzerland Switzerland

Super League Thermoplan Arena, Luzern
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Kabwit O.
Assist: Dantas Fernandes R.
4' Event
Celar Z.
Assist: Olaigbe K.
42' Event
Otele P.
Assist: Shaqiri X.

AI Match Summary

Basel in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Basel.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Luzern
20%
Draws
40%
Basel
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Luzern lately — more wins on the board than Basel.
  • Model gives Luzern a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 91%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 91%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Luzern Clean Sheet 10%
Basel Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Luzern Basel
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 9
Draws 6 5
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 1.93 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.66 2.24
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Super League
Luzern vs Basel
2:4
Feb 22, 2026 Super League
Luzern vs Basel
4:2
Dec 17, 2025 Super League
Luzern vs Basel
1:2
Sep 28, 2025 Super League
Basel vs Luzern
1:2
May 24, 2025 Super League
Basel vs Luzern
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Luzern Compare

Top Goalscorer Kabwit O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Villiger L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22

Basel Compare

Top Goalscorer Shaqiri X.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Celar Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Luzern 34 / 100
Basel 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Luzern Basel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Luzern's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Basel has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Basel's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Luzern VS Basel
2 Goals Scored 2
2.38 Goals Conceded 2.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Luzern

(Home)
31 Oct
Luzern
1 : 1
Sion
24 Oct
Zurich
2 : 1
Luzern
17 Oct
Winterthur
0 : 1
Luzern
10 Oct
Lugano
4 : 0
Luzern
03 Oct
Freiburg
4 : 2
Luzern
Page 1 of 6

Basel

(Away)
01 Nov
Lugano
2 : 1
Basel
25 Oct
Basel
0 : 0
Grasshoppers
16 Oct
Stade Nyonnais
0 : 3
Basel
11 Oct
Vaduz
3 : 0
Basel
03 Oct
Winterthur
7 : 3
Basel
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lugano 11 10 1 0 34:9 31
2 Young Boys 11 7 4 0 35:18 25
3 Sion 12 7 2 3 25:18 23
4 St. Gallen 12 6 1 5 19:22 19
5 Zurich 11 5 2 4 20:23 17
6 Servette 12 5 1 6 17:16 16
7 Basel 11 4 2 5 17:20 14
8 Luzern 12 3 4 5 19:25 13
9 Vaduz 12 3 1 8 24:25 10
10 Thun 11 3 1 7 19:30 10
11 Grasshoppers 12 2 4 6 15:28 10
12 Lausanne 11 1 3 7 7:17 6
Promotion - Super League (Championship Group)
Relegation - Super League (Relegation Group)