Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lyon vs Basel

Europe Europe

Europa League 2025/2026 Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Tolisso C.
Assist: de Carvalho M.
45'
Vouilloz N.
46'
Sub
Tessmann T. In: Morton T.
Out: Tessmann T.

AI Match Summary

Lyon in this Europa League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lyon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Lyon
11%
Draws
9%
Basel
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Lyon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lyon lately — more wins on the board than Basel.
  • Lyon are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Lyon Clean Sheet 17%
Basel Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lyon Basel
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 16 9
Draws 4 5
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 2.5 0.75
Goals Conceded 2 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 23, 2025 Europa League
Lyon vs Basel
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lyon Compare

Top Goalscorer Tolisso C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Moreira A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Basel Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lyon 75 / 100
Basel 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lyon Basel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LYO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lyon scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Basel conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Lyon stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lyon VS Basel
2.5 Goals Scored 0.75
2 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lyon

(Home)
24 Jul
Wolfsburg
0 : 2
Lyon
18 Jul
Slavia Prague
2 : 0
Lyon
15 Jul
Lyon
2 : 1
Servette
11 Jul
Lyon
6 : 3
St. Gallen
08 Jul
Lyon
5 : 2
Macon
Page 1 of 6

Basel

(Away)
25 Jul
Servette
0 : 1
Basel
18 Jul
Basel
0 : 0
Juventus
11 Jul
Basel
2 : 2
Winterthur
08 Jul
Basel
0 : 3
Yverdon
26 Jun
Rapperswil-Jona
0 : 3
Basel
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Lyon870118:521
2Aston Villa870114:621
3Midtjylland861118:819
4Betis852113:717
5FC Porto852113:717
6Braga852111:517
7Freiburg852110:417
8AS Roma851213:616
9Genk851211:716
10Bologna843114:715
11VfB Stuttgart850315:915
12Ferencvaros843112:1115
13Nottingham842215:714
14Plzen83508:314
15Crvena zvezda84227:614
16Celta Vigo841315:1113
17PAOK833217:1412
18Lille840412:912
19Fenerbahce833210:712
20Panathinaikos833211:912
21Celtic832313:1511
22Ludogorets831412:1510
23Din. Zagreb831412:1610
24Brann82339:119
25Young Boys830510:169
26Sturm Graz82155:117
27FCSB82159:167
28G.A. Eagles82156:147
29Feyenoord820611:156
30Basel82069:136
31Salzburg820610:156
32Rangers81165:144
33Nice81077:153
34Utrecht80175:151
35Malmo FF80174:151
36Maccabi Tel Aviv80172:221
Promotion - Europa League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Europa League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)