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Maardu Linnameeskond vs Tartu JK Welco

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Maardu kunstmuruväljak - Artificial grass, Maardu
Our Tip

Match Events

66' Event
Mugra M.

AI Match Summary

Tartu JK Welco in this Esiliiga matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tartu JK Welco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Maardu Linnameeskond
22%
Draws
60%
Tartu JK Welco
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Tartu JK Welco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Maardu Linnameeskond haven't matched Tartu JK Welco's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Tartu JK Welco's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Maardu Linnameeskond Clean Sheet 10%
Tartu JK Welco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maardu Linnameeskond Tartu JK Welco
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 15
Draws 8 6
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.63 3
Goals Conceded 2.38 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 3.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.38 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 13, 2026 Esiliiga
Maardu Linnameeskond vs Tartu JK Welco
1:8
May 24, 2026 Esiliiga
Maardu Linnameeskond vs Tartu JK Welco
0:1
Mar 21, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Maardu Linnameeskond
5:1
Oct 2, 2021 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Maardu Linnameeskond
0:0
Sep 18, 2021 Esiliiga
Maardu Linnameeskond vs Tartu JK Welco
7:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maardu Linnameeskond Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Tartu JK Welco Compare

Top Goalscorer Mugra M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.73
Avg xA / game 1.67

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maardu Linnameeskond 18 / 100
Tartu JK Welco 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maardu Linnameeskond Tartu JK Welco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Tartu JK Welco conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 4.60 goals.

Maardu Linnameeskond found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Solid form: Maardu Linnameeskond remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Maardu Linnameeskond VS Tartu JK Welco
1.63 Goals Scored 3
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Maardu Linnameeskond

(Home)
18 Jul
Flora Tallinn U21
1 : 3
Maardu Linnameeskond
13 Jul
Maardu Linnameeskond
1 : 8
Tartu JK Welco
09 Jul
Maardu Linnameeskond
3 : 2
Flora Tallinn U21
03 Jul
Tallinna Kalev
3 : 3
Maardu Linnameeskond
22 Jun
Maardu Linnameeskond
1 : 0
Viimsi JK
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Tartu JK Welco

(Away)
23 Jul
Rumori Calcio II
5 : 1
Tartu JK Welco
18 Jul
Tartu JK Welco
0 : 2
FC Tallinn
13 Jul
Maardu Linnameeskond
1 : 8
Tartu JK Welco
02 Jul
Tartu JK Welco
2 : 2
Viimsi JK
21 Jun
Tartu JK Welco
5 : 2
Nomme Utd U21
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tartu JK Welco20143362:2645
2Flora Tallinn U2120104651:3834
3Viimsi JK1995531:1932
4Elva2093837:3330
5Levadia U2120901139:3527
6Maardu Linnameeskond2075830:4726
7Tallinna Kalev2074940:4025
8FC Tallinn20551027:4920
9Nomme Utd U211955936:4520
10Kalju U2120541130:5119
Promotion - Meistriliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B 2027 (Main)