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Macara vs Leones del Norte

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Bellavista
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Macara play Leones del Norte in the Liga Pro. It looks like a close match. Recently, Macara averaged 1 goals scored and 0.89 conceded. Leones del Norte averaged 1 goals scored and 0.96 conceded. In past meetings, Macara won 0, Leones del Norte won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 1, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.76 for Macara and 1.31 for Leones del Norte. This points to a Macara double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Macara
34%
Draws
30%
Leones del Norte
Draw rate projection: 34% Favored: Macara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Macara picked up more points recently compared to Leones del Norte.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.76 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 31%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Macara Clean Sheet 18%
Leones del Norte Clean Sheet 19%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Macara Leones del Norte
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 9
Draws 9 10
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1 1
Goals Conceded 0.89 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 1, 2026 Liga Pro
Leones del Norte vs Macara
1:1
Feb 22, 2026 Liga Pro
Macara vs Leones del Norte
0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Macara 36 / 100
Leones del Norte 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Macara Leones del Norte

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Macara or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +24%
4.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Macara attacking → ← attacking Leones del Norte

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Macara scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Leones del Norte let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Macara went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Leones del Norte lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 37
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Independiente del Valle17131336:1840
2Barcelona SC1785420:1329
3LDU Quito1783619:1427
4Dep. Cuenca1783618:1927
5U. Catolica1775528:1726
6Aucas1675419:1626
7Tecnico U.1772819:1723
8Macara1765616:1823
9Emelec1765614:1723
10Orense1764722:2422
11Mushuc Runa1756622:2321
12Leones del Norte1755718:1920
13Guayaquil City1654714:1919
14Delfin174589:1617
15Libertad1745817:2517
16Manta1733117:2312