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Madre de Deus vs Serrano

Brazil Brazil

Baiano 2 2008
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 5-4, with Madre de Deus advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Madre de Deus
20%
Draws
29%
Serrano
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Madre de Deus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Madre de Deus's 1.47 goals per match outpaces what Serrano have produced (1.07).
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Madre de Deus taking it.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Madre de Deus, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Madre de Deus Clean Sheet 20%
Serrano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Madre de Deus Serrano
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 7
Draws 13 6
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.47 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 12, 2008 Baiano 2
Madre de Deus vs Serrano
5:4
Sep 28, 2008 Baiano 2
Serrano vs Madre de Deus
1:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Madre de Deus 85 / 100
Serrano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Madre de Deus Serrano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Madre de Deus Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Madre de Deus found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Serrano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 7.00 goals when they meet.

Madre de Deus went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Serrano
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Madre de Deus

(Home)
07 Apr
Madre de Deus
1 : 0
Itabuna
04 Apr
Colo Colo
3 : 2
Madre de Deus
28 Mar
Madre de Deus
1 : 2
Ipitanga
24 Mar
Ipitanga
3 : 3
Madre de Deus
21 Mar
Madre de Deus
2 : 0
Colo Colo
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Serrano

(Away)
13 Sept
Central SC
3 : 0
Serrano
06 Sept
Serrano
3 : 1
Treze PB
30 Aug
Estanciano EC
3 : 1
Serrano
16 Aug
Serrano
0 : 1
Goianesia
02 Aug
Goianesia
0 : 0
Serrano
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Juazeirense 1
Guanambi AC 2
Serrano 5
Madre de Deus 9
Final
Guanambi AC 1
Madre de Deus 3