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Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Horta Leitao D.
Assist: Cabral D.
9' Event
Iheanacho S.
Assist: Rossi R.
18'
Alves K.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Mafra and CF Os Belenenses finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CF Os Belenenses.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Mafra
15%
Draws
53%
CF Os Belenenses
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: CF Os Belenenses

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • CF Os Belenenses carry the better recent record into this one.
  • CF Os Belenenses are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Mafra Clean Sheet 16%
CF Os Belenenses Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mafra CF Os Belenenses
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 14 19
Draws 6 7
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.55 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.39 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga 3
CF Os Belenenses vs Mafra
3:1
Mar 22, 2026 Liga 3
Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses
1:4
Nov 9, 2025 Liga 3
CF Os Belenenses vs Mafra
2:1
Aug 9, 2025 Liga 3
Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses
1:1
Feb 2, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mafra Compare

Top Goalscorer Iheanacho S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

CF Os Belenenses Compare

Top Goalscorer Horta Leitao D.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Souza E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mafra 10 / 100
CF Os Belenenses 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mafra CF Os Belenenses

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CF Os Belenenses Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mafra scored in 90% of their last 31 games.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

CF Os Belenenses has conceded goals in 63% of their last 32 outings.

Mafra went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mafra VS CF Os Belenenses
1.63 Goals Scored 2
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mafra

(Home)
19 Sept
Mafra
3 : 2
Tirsense
12 Sept
Oliveirense
2 : 1
Mafra
05 Sept
Mafra
1 : 0
Covilha
29 Aug
Malveira
2 : 3
Mafra
22 Aug
Lusitano GC
2 : 1
Mafra
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CF Os Belenenses

(Away)
19 Sept
Beira Mar
0 : 2
CF Os Belenenses
13 Sept
CF Os Belenenses
1 : 0
Atletico CP
06 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 3
CF Os Belenenses
30 Aug
Lusitano GC
1 : 2
CF Os Belenenses
22 Aug
CF Os Belenenses
5 : 0
Santarem
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)