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Malatya vs Erciyes 38

Turkey Turkey

3. Lig Group 1 2025/2026 Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Malatya
Our Tip

Match Events

90'
Yasak C.
90'
Yasak C.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-0. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Malatya
20%
Draws
32%
Erciyes 38
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Malatya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Malatya carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 48% — that's where the model lands on Malatya taking it.
  • Malatya have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Malatya Clean Sheet 16%
Erciyes 38 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Malatya Erciyes 38
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 12
Draws 5 10
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.52 1.38
Goals Conceded 1 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2026 3. Lig Group 1
Erciyes 38 vs Malatya
3:4
May 4, 2026 3. Lig Group 1
Malatya vs Erciyes 38
0:0
Feb 15, 2026 3. Lig Group 2
Erciyes 38 vs Malatya
1:4
Oct 12, 2025 3. Lig Group 2
Malatya vs Erciyes 38
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Malatya 48 / 100
Erciyes 38 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Malatya Erciyes 38

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Malatya Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Malatya scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Erciyes 38's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Malatya stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Malatya VS Erciyes 38
2.13 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Malatya

(Home)
19 Sept
Osmaniyespor
0 : 1
Malatya
12 Sept
Malatya
3 : 1
Kirikkale FK
06 Sept
Diyarbekirspor (Est. 1977)
0 : 1
Malatya
16 May
Corluspor
1 : 0
Malatya
08 May
Erciyes 38
3 : 4
Malatya
Page 1 of 6

Erciyes 38

(Away)
19 Sept
Diyarbekirspor (Est. 1977)
0 : 0
Erciyes 38
12 Sept
Erciyes 38
2 : 1
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
06 Sept
Agri 1970
0 : 1
Erciyes 38
08 May
Erciyes 38
3 : 4
Malatya
04 May
Malatya
0 : 0
Erciyes 38
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Corluspor 4
Bursa Yildirimspor 3
Kucukcekmece 2
Etimesgut 1
Erciyes 38 3
Mazidagi 1
Silifke 2
Malatya 4
52 Orduspor 7
Fatsa Bld. 2
Karadeniz Eregli 0
Yozgat 4
Eskisehirspor 4
Balikesirspor 2
Karsiyaka 0
Ayvalikgucu 2
Semi-finals
Corluspor 4
Kucukcekmece 2
Erciyes 38 3
Malatya 4
52 Orduspor 2
Yozgat 1
Eskisehirspor 0
Ayvalikgucu 2
Final
Corluspor 1
Malatya 0
52 Orduspor 2
Ayvalikgucu 1