Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maldonado vs Progreso

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel, Maldonado
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Noble Sequeira A. M.
(Penalty)
45'
Ginzo J. M.
46'
Sub
Silva G. In: Viera S.
Out: Silva G.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Maldonado and Progreso finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maldonado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Maldonado
11%
Draws
9%
Progreso
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Progreso haven't matched Maldonado's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Maldonado a 80% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%
Progreso Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maldonado Progreso
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 8
Draws 7 5
Losses 7 16
Goals Scored 2 0.63
Goals Conceded 1 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Maldonado
1:0
Feb 14, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Progreso
2:0
Oct 6, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Progreso
2:2
Jul 21, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Maldonado
0:1
Mar 31, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Maldonado
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maldonado 86 / 100
Progreso 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maldonado Progreso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maldonado's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Progreso conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Solid form: Maldonado remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Maldonado VS Progreso
2 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Maldonado

(Home)
18 Jul
Progreso
1 : 0
Maldonado
10 Jul
Maldonado
1 : 1
Albion
06 Jun
Montevideo City
2 : 4
Maldonado
31 May
Maldonado
3 : 0
Club Nacional
24 May
Wanderers
1 : 1
Maldonado
Page 1 of 6

Progreso

(Away)
18 Jul
Progreso
1 : 0
Maldonado
11 Jul
Wanderers
2 : 0
Progreso
07 Jun
Progreso
1 : 2
Albion
30 May
Danubio
1 : 2
Progreso
23 May
Progreso
1 : 2
Montevideo City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Racing Montevideo1594223:1431
2Maldonado1592424:1629
3Albion1584326:1628
4Penarol1583423:1627
5Central Esp.1573523:2224
6Montevideo City1565422:1623
7Club Nacional1571726:2122
8Defensor Sp.1556413:1121
9Liverpool M.1555520:1820
10Wanderers1562716:2120
11Danubio1546517:2118
12Cerro Largo1552816:1917
13Boston River1552814:2017
14Juventud1543817:2215
15Progreso1524912:2310
16CA Cerro152498:2410
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)