Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 18 2015/2016

Toledo 2

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Manchego Ciudad Real play Toledo 2 in the Tercera Division - Group 18 2015/2016. It looks like a close match. Recently, Manchego Ciudad Real averaged 1.37 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. Toledo 2 averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. In past meetings, Manchego Ciudad Real won 2, Toledo 2 won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 5, 2017 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for Manchego Ciudad Real and 1.06 for Toledo 2. This points to a Manchego Ciudad Real double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%

Manchego Ciudad Real

28%

Draws

29%

Toledo 2

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Manchego Ciudad Real

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence

Manchego Ciudad Real picked up more points recently compared to Toledo 2.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 1.06 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 70%

Over 2.5 Goals 42%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%

Manchego Ciudad Real Clean Sheet 22%

Toledo 2 Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 63%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Manchego Ciudad Real	Toledo 2
Matches Played	46	35
Wins	20	11
Draws	17	8
Losses	9	16
Goals Scored	1.37	1.31
Goals Conceded	0.7	1.6

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 5, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Manchego Ciudad Real vs Toledo 2

Possession: 54% - 56% Cards: 3 - 1

1:2

Sep 18, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Toledo 2 vs Manchego Ciudad Real

Possession: 45% - 40% Cards: 1 - 0

0:0

Apr 30, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Manchego Ciudad Real vs Toledo 2

Possession: 53% - 58% Cards: 3 - 0

2:0

Dec 13, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Toledo 2 vs Manchego Ciudad Real

Possession: 59% - 51% Cards: 3 - 3

2:1

Jan 11, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Toledo 2 vs Manchego Ciudad Real

Possession: 57% - 45% Cards: 3 - 4

1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manchego Ciudad Real 43 / 100

Toledo 2 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Manchego Ciudad Real Toledo 2

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Manchego Ciudad Real or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23%

2.86

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +16.8%

2.78

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Manchego Ciudad Real attacking → ← attacking Toledo 2

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Manchego Ciudad Real scored in 61% of their last 46 games.

Toledo 2 let in goals in 86% of their last 35 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Manchego Ciudad Real went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Toledo 2 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

77 Points in last 5 41

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Conquense	38	24	4	10	54:26	76
2	Almagro	38	22	10	6	64:33	76
3	Azuqueca	38	20	10	8	58:31	70
4	UD Almansa	38	17	15	6	54:35	66
5	Quintanar del Rey	38	17	11	10	38:29	62
6	Madridejos	38	16	12	10	47:45	60
7	Illescas	38	16	10	12	50:47	58
8	Villarrobledo	38	15	9	14	44:38	54
9	Marchamalo	38	14	10	14	51:53	52
10	Manchego Ciudad Real	38	14	9	15	41:36	51
11	Toledo 2	38	14	9	15	50:48	51
12	Villarrubia	38	12	12	14	34:34	48
13	CD Pedroneras	38	12	12	14	36:42	48
14	Albacete B	38	10	16	12	47:51	46
15	Mora CF	38	13	7	18	43:48	46
16	Manzanares	38	11	12	15	39:43	45
17	Atletico Ibanes	38	9	15	14	29:42	42
18	La Gineta	38	8	8	22	41:61	32
19	San Jose Obrero	38	7	10	21	37:70	31
20	Munera CF	38	5	7	26	28:73	22