Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Manfredonia vs Francavilla

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Urain E.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H game between Manfredonia and Francavilla finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Manfredonia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Manfredonia
17%
Draws
70%
Francavilla
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Francavilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Manfredonia haven't matched Francavilla's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Francavilla's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Francavilla here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Manfredonia Clean Sheet 16%
Francavilla Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manfredonia Francavilla
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 10 13
Draws 9 9
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.13 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 4, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Francavilla
1:0
Sep 7, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Francavilla vs Manfredonia
3:2
Feb 16, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Francavilla
0:1
Oct 20, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Francavilla vs Manfredonia
2:0
Mar 4, 2018 Serie D - Group H
Francavilla vs Manfredonia
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Manfredonia Compare

Top Goalscorer Urain E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Francavilla Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manfredonia 15 / 100
Francavilla 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manfredonia Francavilla

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FCF Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Manfredonia found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Francavilla has conceded goals in 76% of their last 34 outings.

Manfredonia has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Manfredonia VS Francavilla
1.13 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Manfredonia

(Home)
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2
Manfredonia
26 Apr
Manfredonia
0 : 0
Fidelis Andria
19 Apr
A.C.D. Nardo
2 : 0
Manfredonia
12 Apr
Manfredonia
1 : 0
SS Nola 1925
02 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 1
Manfredonia
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Francavilla

(Away)
03 May
Francavilla
2 : 0
Afragolese
26 Apr
Sarnese
2 : 2
Francavilla
19 Apr
Virtus Francavilla
0 : 3
Francavilla
12 Apr
Francavilla
4 : 1
Acerrana
02 Apr
Fidelis Andria
0 : 0
Francavilla
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Barletta342010454:2070
2Martina Calcio34188847:3062
3Citta di Fasano34188851:3562
4Paganese341771036:3258
5A.C.D. Nardo341413740:2755
6Gravina341671150:4055
7Afragolese3413101145:4649
8Fidelis Andria341391235:2848
9Virtus Francavilla3412121045:4048
10Real Normanna3410131127:2643
11Francavilla3411101339:3843
12Manfredonia3411101334:3943
13Sarnese349141151:4941
14SS Nola 1925341181542:5041
15Heraclea341081631:3938
16Pompei34971826:3834
17Ferrandina34791821:4330
18Acerrana34352620:7414
Promotion - Serie D - Group H (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H (Play Out)