Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maria de Fonte vs Merelinense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Merelinense in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Merelinense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Maria de Fonte
15%
Draws
65%
Merelinense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Merelinense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Maria de Fonte haven't matched Merelinense's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Merelinense a 65% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Maria de Fonte Clean Sheet 11%
Merelinense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maria de Fonte Merelinense
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 9 10
Draws 5 9
Losses 20 11
Goals Scored 1 1.37
Goals Conceded 2.03 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.79
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 12, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Maria de Fonte vs Merelinense
0:2
Oct 30, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Merelinense vs Maria de Fonte
1:1
Sep 11, 2022 Taça de Portugal
Maria de Fonte vs Merelinense
0:4
Jan 23, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Maria de Fonte vs Merelinense
2:1
Oct 24, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Merelinense vs Maria de Fonte
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maria de Fonte 14 / 100
Merelinense 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maria de Fonte Merelinense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Merelinense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Merelinense conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Maria de Fonte's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Recent resilience: Maria de Fonte stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maria de Fonte VS Merelinense
1 Goals Scored 1.33
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.33
75% Over 1.5 83%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Maria de Fonte

(Home)
20 Sept
Paredes
5 : 1
Maria de Fonte
13 Sept
Maria de Fonte
0 : 4
Braga B
06 Sept
Brito
2 : 1
Maria de Fonte
30 Aug
Maria de Fonte
1 : 0
Uniao Nogueirense
23 Aug
Maria de Fonte
0 : 1
Celoricense
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Merelinense

(Away)
20 Sept
Santarem
5 : 0
Merelinense
30 Aug
Merelinense
2 : 0
Atletico Arcos
16 Apr
Merelinense
1 : 0
Tirsense
08 Apr
Vilar de Perdizes
1 : 1
Merelinense
02 Apr
Merelinense
2 : 1
Desportivo Moncao
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SC Vianense 26 16 5 5 37:19 53
2 Amarante FC 26 14 9 3 43:25 51
3 Tirsense 26 14 2 10 39:25 44
4 Pevidem 26 13 4 9 37:30 43
5 Vila Mea 26 11 6 9 39:30 39
6 Vilar de Perdizes 26 8 12 6 33:32 36
7 Brito 26 9 8 9 21:28 35
8 Dumiense 26 9 7 10 34:35 34
9 Merelinense 26 8 9 9 32:32 33
10 Pedras Salgadas 26 8 8 10 27:28 32
11 Desportivo Moncao 26 7 6 13 34:45 27
12 Maria de Fonte 26 6 7 13 27:45 25
13 Sao Martinho 26 5 9 12 24:34 24
14 GD Braganca 26 5 6 15 20:39 21
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2022/2023 (Promotion Group)