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Maritsa Milevo vs Nesebar

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-East
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AI Match Summary

The Third League - South-East game between Maritsa Milevo and Nesebar finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maritsa Milevo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Maritsa Milevo
11%
Draws
80%
Nesebar
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Nesebar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Maritsa Milevo haven't matched Nesebar's recent run of results.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Nesebar taking it.
  • Regular Third League - South-East form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Maritsa Milevo Clean Sheet 10%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maritsa Milevo Nesebar
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 15 23
Draws 9 6
Losses 7 2
Goals Scored 2.63 3.75
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 3.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2026 Third League - South-East
Maritsa Milevo vs Nesebar
1:0
Oct 4, 2025 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Maritsa Milevo
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maritsa Milevo 10 / 100
Nesebar 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maritsa Milevo Nesebar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NES Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maritsa Milevo's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Maritsa Milevo stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Nesebar has conceded goals in 52% of their last 31 outings.

Scoring Trends

Maritsa Milevo VS Nesebar
2.63 Goals Scored 3.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Maritsa Milevo

(Home)
15 Jul
Beroe
1 : 2
Maritsa Milevo
27 May
Maritsa Milevo
2 : 0
Lok. Plovdiv II
23 May
Neftochimic Burgas
2 : 2
Maritsa Milevo
16 May
Maritsa Milevo
1 : 2
Dimitrovgrad
09 May
Maritsa Milevo
4 : 0
Asenovets
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Nesebar

(Away)
08 Jul
Spartak Varna
1 : 1
Nesebar
01 Jul
Ludogorets II
1 : 1
Nesebar
27 May
Nesebar
8 : 1
Asenovets
23 May
Zagorets
2 : 4
Nesebar
17 May
Nesebar
6 : 1
Spartak Plovdiv
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Nesebar362943116:2291
2Maritsa Plovdiv36236790:4075
3Neftochimic Burgas36199853:3966
4Yambol 1915362061072:4166
5Levski Karlovo362051164:5365
6Maritsa Milevo361791064:3260
7Spartak Plovdiv361591264:5854
8Sozopol361661450:3854
9OFC Haskovo361571452:4852
10Zagorets3613101352:6049
11Rozova Dolina361461645:5248
12Gigant Saedinenie361451756:5947
13Rodopa Smolyan361441851:7046
14Atletik Kuklen361332043:7842
15Sekirovo Rakovski36981930:5335
16Dimitrovgrad361052142:8235
17Lok. Plovdiv II36962144:5333
18Rakovski 201136832546:9427
19Asenovets36652530:9223
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