Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Marquense vs Xinabajul

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2024/2025 Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada, San Marcos
Sun, Jan 19, 2025
0 - 3
03:00 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Lacayo J.
12'
Lacayo J.
26'
Medford H.

AI Match Summary

Marquense host Xinabajul in the Liga Nacional 2024/2025. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Recent numbers: Marquense at 0.97 goals for, 1.29 against; Xinabajul at 1.07 for, 1.71 against. Head-to-head, Marquense have won 2 to Xinabajul's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on Mar 6, 2025, ending 2:0. xG projections (1.17 - 1.13) back Marquense to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Marquense
35%
Draws
19%
Xinabajul
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Marquense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Marquense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Marquense are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Liga Nacional 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Marquense Clean Sheet 68%
Xinabajul Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marquense Xinabajul
Matches Played 34 28
Wins 13 6
Draws 6 8
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 0.97 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 6, 2025 Liga Nacional
Xinabajul vs Marquense
2:0
Jan 19, 2025 Liga Nacional
Marquense vs Xinabajul
0:3
Sep 29, 2024 Liga Nacional
Xinabajul vs Marquense
3:0
Mar 12, 2011 Liga Nacional
Marquense vs Xinabajul
1:0
Jan 27, 2011 Liga Nacional
Xinabajul vs Marquense
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marquense Compare

Top Goalscorer Lacayo J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Flores D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Xinabajul Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marquense 50 / 100
Xinabajul 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marquense Xinabajul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marquense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Marquense scored in 62% of their last 34 outings.

Xinabajul has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Marquense went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marquense VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Marquense

(Home)
19 Sept
Aurora F.C.
1 : 0
Marquense
13 Sept
Marquense
0 : 0
Deportivo San Pedro
10 Sept
Comunicaciones
0 : 2
Marquense
06 Sept
Marquense
0 : 4
Xelaju
29 Aug
Guastatoya
1 : 2
Marquense
Page 1 of 7

Xinabajul

(Away)
27 Apr
Comunicaciones
2 : 1
Xinabajul
24 Apr
Xinabajul
1 : 1
Guastatoya
20 Apr
Deportivo Mixco
3 : 1
Xinabajul
17 Apr
Xinabajul
0 : 0
Antigua
14 Apr
Xinabajul
1 : 1
Malacateco
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Municipal 20 10 5 5 26:18 35
2 Comunicaciones 20 9 6 5 27:24 33
3 Antigua 20 9 5 6 30:24 32
4 Coban Imperial 20 10 2 8 26:25 32
5 Malacateco 20 8 5 7 30:26 29
6 Guastatoya 20 8 5 7 21:22 29
7 Marquense 20 7 6 7 18:19 27
8 Deportivo Mixco 20 6 7 7 21:23 25
9 Xelaju 20 6 6 8 28:25 24
10 Deportivo Achuapa 20 5 4 11 18:23 19
11 Xinabajul 20 4 5 11 21:37 17
12 Zacapa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2024/2025 (Clausura - Play Offs)