Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Marseille vs Auxerre

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Vélodrome, Marseille
Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Medina F.
37'
Egan-Riley C.
45'
Okoh B.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Marseille and Auxerre finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marseille.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Marseille
15%
Draws
85%
Auxerre
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Auxerre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Marseille come out ahead of Auxerre on wins alone.
  • Marseille are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Marseille Clean Sheet 20%
Auxerre Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marseille Auxerre
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 12 9
Draws 3 9
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.47 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 13, 2026 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Auxerre
1:0
Nov 1, 2025 Ligue 1
Auxerre vs Marseille
0:1
Feb 22, 2025 Ligue 1
Auxerre vs Marseille
3:0
Nov 8, 2024 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Auxerre
1:3
Apr 30, 2023 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Auxerre
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marseille Compare

Top Goalscorer Gouiri A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Auxerre Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marseille 42 / 100
Auxerre 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marseille Auxerre

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Marseille scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Auxerre has conceded goals in 70% of their last 27 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Difficult form: Auxerre registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marseille VS Auxerre
1.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Marseille

(Home)
20 Sept
Marseille
1 : 2
PSG
17 Sept
Besiktas
4 : 1
Marseille
11 Sept
Rennes
1 : 0
Marseille
06 Sept
Marseille
2 : 3
Paris FC
30 Aug
Monaco
2 : 0
Marseille
Page 1 of 6

Auxerre

(Away)
20 Sept
Auxerre
2 : 1
Brest
12 Sept
Auxerre
1 : 0
Nice
04 Sept
Lyon
3 : 1
Auxerre
29 Aug
Auxerre
1 : 3
Angers
22 Aug
Lens
5 : 2
Auxerre
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 34 24 4 6 74:29 76
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 66:35 70
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 52:37 61
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 53:40 60
5 Marseille 34 18 5 11 63:45 59
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 59:50 59
7 Monaco 34 16 6 12 60:54 54
8 Strasbourg 34 15 8 11 58:47 53
9 Toulouse 34 12 9 13 47:46 45
10 Lorient 34 11 12 11 48:51 45
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 47:50 44
12 Brest 34 10 9 15 43:55 39
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 29:48 36
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 32:44 35
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 34:44 34
16 Nice 34 7 11 16 37:60 32
17 Nantes 34 5 9 20 29:52 24
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 32:76 17
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)