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Marsouins vs Excelsior

Réunion Réunion

Regionale 1
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Excelsior in this Regionale 1 matchup, with the score ending 1-6 — backing the pre-match view that favored Excelsior.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Marsouins
15%
Draws
78%
Excelsior
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Excelsior

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Excelsior lately — more wins on the board than Marsouins.
  • Excelsior are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Marsouins Clean Sheet 11%
Excelsior Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marsouins Excelsior
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 4 18
Draws 6 9
Losses 20 4
Goals Scored 0.57 2.06
Goals Conceded 1.97 0.84
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 9, 2025 Regionale 1
Marsouins vs Excelsior
1:6
Jun 22, 2025 Regionale 1
Excelsior vs Marsouins
2:0
Nov 6, 2022 Regionale 1
Excelsior vs Marsouins
0:4
Jul 3, 2022 Regionale 1
Marsouins vs Excelsior
0:0
Nov 14, 2021 Regionale 1
Marsouins vs Excelsior
1:5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marsouins 10 / 100
Excelsior 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marsouins Excelsior

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Excelsior Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Marsouins scored in 40% of their last 30 games.

Excelsior has conceded goals in 48% of their last 31 outings.

Recent resilience: Marsouins stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marsouins VS Excelsior
0.63 Goals Scored 1.25
2.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Marsouins

(Home)
21 Nov
Saint-Pauloise FC
4 : 0
Marsouins
09 Nov
Marsouins
1 : 6
Excelsior
02 Nov
Dominicaine
3 : 0
Marsouins
19 Oct
Marsouins
1 : 1
Saint Louis
12 Oct
Piton Saint-Leu
2 : 0
Marsouins
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Excelsior

(Away)
23 Nov
Excelsior
4 : 0
Saint-Louisienne
09 Nov
Marsouins
1 : 6
Excelsior
02 Nov
Excelsior
3 : 0
Riviere des Galets
19 Oct
Saint-Pierroise
1 : 2
Excelsior
12 Oct
Excelsior
0 : 2
Saint-Pauloise FC
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