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Stadium Background

Marupe vs FK Smiltene

Latvia Latvia

Nakotnes liga
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Dumins E.
58' Event
Speks R.
59' Event
Penka R.

AI Match Summary

The Nakotnes liga game between Marupe and FK Smiltene finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marupe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Marupe
17%
Draws
13%
FK Smiltene
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Marupe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • FK Smiltene haven't matched Marupe's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Marupe a 70% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Nakotnes liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Marupe Clean Sheet 16%
FK Smiltene Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marupe FK Smiltene
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 5
Draws 2 7
Losses 16 18
Goals Scored 1.75 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.63 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Nakotnes liga
Marupe vs FK Smiltene
2:1
Aug 23, 2025 Nakotnes liga
Marupe vs FK Smiltene
0:3
Apr 19, 2025 Nakotnes liga
FK Smiltene vs Marupe
1:2
Oct 6, 2024 Nakotnes liga
Marupe vs FK Smiltene
0:0
Jun 22, 2024 Latvian Cup
Marupe vs FK Smiltene
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marupe Compare

Top Goalscorer Speks R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Penka R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

FK Smiltene Compare

Top Goalscorer Dumins E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marupe 66 / 100
FK Smiltene 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marupe FK Smiltene

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Smiltene has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Marupe scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

FK Smiltene's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Marupe VS FK Smiltene
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Marupe

(Home)
25 Jul
Rezekne
1 : 2
Marupe
18 Jul
Marupe
0 : 4
FK Metta
12 Jul
Marupe
0 : 1
Grobina
04 Jul
Marupe
2 : 1
FK Smiltene
27 Jun
Riga Mariners
2 : 0
Marupe
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FK Smiltene

(Away)
25 Jul
FK Smiltene
3 : 5
RFS 2
19 Jul
FK Smiltene
1 : 0
Rezekne
04 Jul
Marupe
2 : 1
FK Smiltene
28 Jun
FK Smiltene
2 : 4
Skanste
22 Jun
FK Smiltene
1 : 4
Valmiera
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1FK Metta13111146:1134
2Valmiera13102135:1232
3Leevon PPK1493224:1730
4Riga Mariners1485127:1329
5Alberts JDFS1473429:2224
6Marupe1471624:2022
7Super Nova 21455421:2020
8Riga FC 21361621:2319
9Skanste1441921:2913
10RFS 21433820:3112
11JFK Ventspils1425717:2411
12Tukums 2000 21332818:3111
13FK Smiltene1414916:387
14Rezekne14121111:395
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