Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Marupe vs JFK Ventspils

Latvia Latvia

Nakotnes liga
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Oliynyk M.
45' Event
Liepajnieks V.
54' Event
Messina M.

AI Match Summary

JFK Ventspils in this Nakotnes liga matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored JFK Ventspils.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Marupe
20%
Draws
36%
JFK Ventspils
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Marupe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Medium Confidence
  • Marupe have won more games recently than JFK Ventspils.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on JFK Ventspils taking it.
  • Regular Nakotnes liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Marupe Clean Sheet 14%
JFK Ventspils Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marupe JFK Ventspils
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 6
Draws 2 9
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 1.38 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 14, 2026 Nakotnes liga
Marupe vs JFK Ventspils
1:2
Nov 1, 2025 Nakotnes liga
JFK Ventspils vs Marupe
1:0
Jul 5, 2025 Nakotnes liga
Marupe vs JFK Ventspils
1:2
Sep 15, 2024 Nakotnes liga
JFK Ventspils vs Marupe
2:3
May 11, 2024 Nakotnes liga
Marupe vs JFK Ventspils
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marupe Compare

Top Goalscorer Oliynyk M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

JFK Ventspils Compare

Top Goalscorer Liepajnieks V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Messina M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marupe 27 / 100
JFK Ventspils 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marupe JFK Ventspils

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick JFK Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marupe found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

JFK Ventspils has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Marupe went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marupe VS JFK Ventspils
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Marupe

(Home)
01 Aug
Skanste
4 : 2
Marupe
25 Jul
Rezekne
1 : 2
Marupe
18 Jul
Marupe
0 : 4
FK Metta
12 Jul
Marupe
0 : 1
Grobina
04 Jul
Marupe
2 : 1
FK Smiltene
Page 1 of 6

JFK Ventspils

(Away)
02 Aug
JFK Ventspils
1 : 2
FK Smiltene
25 Jul
Riga Mariners
1 : 1
JFK Ventspils
18 Jul
JFK Ventspils
1 : 3
Alberts JDFS
11 Jul
Skanste
0 : 3
JFK Ventspils
04 Jul
Rezekne
1 : 1
JFK Ventspils
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Valmiera 15 12 2 1 40:13 38
2 FK Metta 15 12 2 1 57:13 38
3 Leevon PPK 15 10 3 2 26:18 33
4 Riga Mariners 15 9 5 1 30:13 32
5 Alberts JDFS 15 7 4 4 30:23 25
6 Marupe 15 7 1 7 26:24 22
7 Riga FC 2 15 6 2 7 23:28 20
8 Super Nova 2 15 5 5 5 21:23 20
9 Skanste 15 5 1 9 25:31 16
10 Tukums 2000 2 15 3 3 9 19:41 12
11 RFS 2 15 3 3 9 21:33 12
12 JFK Ventspils 15 2 5 8 18:26 11
13 FK Smiltene 15 2 4 9 18:39 10
14 Rezekne 15 1 2 12 12:41 5
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