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Matanzas vs FC Holguin

Cuba Cuba

Liga Nacional 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Matanzas play FC Holguin in the Liga Nacional 2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Matanzas averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.54 conceded. FC Holguin averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. In past meetings, Matanzas won 0, FC Holguin won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 31, 2023 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.81 for Matanzas and 0.81 for FC Holguin. This points to a FC Holguin double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Matanzas
25%
Draws
48%
FC Holguin
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: FC Holguin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Matanzas picked up more points recently compared to FC Holguin.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.81 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Matanzas Clean Sheet 26%
FC Holguin Clean Sheet 18%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matanzas FC Holguin
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 7 11
Draws 6 8
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 0.93 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2023 Liga Nacional
Matanzas vs FC Holguin
0:1
May 6, 2023 Liga Nacional
FC Holguin vs Matanzas
4:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matanzas 30 / 100
FC Holguin 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matanzas FC Holguin

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: FC Holguin or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +42%
5.26
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Matanzas attacking → ← attacking FC Holguin

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Matanzas scored in 57% of their last 28 games.

FC Holguin let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Matanzas went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

FC Holguin lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 41
0.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25