Sport Picks

Japan

J2/J3 League Sunpro Alwin

Matsumoto Yamaga

4 - 1

Omiya Ardija

Our Tip

Match Events

16'

Murakoshi K.

Assist: Fukazawa Y.

40'

Kato H.

42'

Yasunaga R.

Assist: Higuchi D.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Matsumoto Yamaga in this J2/J3 League matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Matsumoto Yamaga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Matsumoto Yamaga

44%

Draws

20%

Omiya Ardija

Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Form's been kind to Omiya Ardija lately — more wins on the board than Matsumoto Yamaga.
Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%

Matsumoto Yamaga Clean Sheet 14%

Omiya Ardija Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Matsumoto Yamaga	Omiya Ardija
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	11	16
Draws	1	1
Losses	18	13
Goals Scored	1.38	1.88
Goals Conceded	1.38	1.75
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 J2/J3 League

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Omiya Ardija

Possession: 46% - 56% Cards: 1 - 2

4:1

Feb 7, 2026 J2/J3 League

Omiya Ardija vs Matsumoto Yamaga

Possession: 53% - 42% Cards: 0 - 1

2:1

Sep 7, 2024 J3 League

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Omiya Ardija

Possession: 49% - 50% Cards: 2 - 2

0:1

May 6, 2024 J3 League

Omiya Ardija vs Matsumoto Yamaga

Possession: 49% - 40% Cards: 0 - 3

0:2

Aug 29, 2021 J2 League

Omiya Ardija vs Matsumoto Yamaga

Possession: 51% - 54% Cards: 2 - 1

4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Matsumoto Yamaga Compare

Top Goalscorer Kato T.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Murakoshi K.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Omiya Ardija Compare

Top Goalscorer Kato H.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.71

Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matsumoto Yamaga 35 / 100

Omiya Ardija 20 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Matsumoto Yamaga Omiya Ardija

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick OMI Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Omiya Ardija conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Matsumoto Yamaga scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Away concern: Omiya Ardija has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Matsumoto Yamaga VS Omiya Ardija

1.38 Goals Scored 1.88

1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75

63% Over 1.5 100%

63% Over 2.5 88%

13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	18	16	2	37:15	43
2	Blaublitz	18	11	7	23:16	35
3	Shonan Bellmare	18	11	7	28:20	31
4	Yokohama FC	18	10	8	36:28	29
5	SC Sagamihara	18	9	9	33:36	28
6	Thespakusatsu Gunma	18	7	11	27:39	23
7	Montedio Yamagata	18	8	10	22:25	22
8	Tochigi City	18	7	11	22:35	21
9	Vanraure	17	5	12	16:23	18
10	Tochigi SC	17	5	12	24:31	17

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kofu	17	11	6	20:12	33
2	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	18	11	7	28:22	31
3	Iwaki	18	11	7	26:20	31
4	Omiya Ardija	18	10	8	39:29	30
5	Fujieda MYFC	18	9	9	24:23	30
6	Gifu	17	9	8	23:25	27
7	Matsumoto Yamaga	18	8	10	33:25	26
8	Iwata	18	9	9	20:25	25
9	Fukushima United	18	6	12	30:43	18
10	Nagano Parceiro	18	5	13	17:36	16

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Toyama	18	13	5	40:26	38
2	Albirex Niigata	18	12	6	24:19	35
3	Tokushima	18	11	7	38:23	32
4	Kochi United	18	10	8	25:23	30
5	Ehime	18	9	9	26:20	28
6	Kanazawa	18	10	8	20:23	27
7	Nara Club	18	7	11	27:36	21
8	FC Osaka	18	6	12	18:23	20
9	Imabari	18	6	12	15:21	20
10	Kamatamare Sanuki	18	6	12	15:34	19

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	18	15	3	35:13	47
2	Kagoshima United	18	12	6	27:16	33
3	Sagan Tosu	18	10	8	26:18	32
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	18	10	8	27:24	29
5	Kumamoto	18	9	9	21:21	27
6	Gainare Tottori	18	10	8	24:25	27
7	Oita Trinita	18	7	11	19:20	22
8	Reilac Shiga	18	7	11	16:29	21
9	Ryukyu	18	6	12	17:28	17
10	Giravanz Kitakyushu	18	4	14	17:35	15